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Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecast: Will Prices Stabilize Further?

Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecast: Will Prices Stabilize Further?

2020-09-16 04:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Trader Positioning - Talking Points

  • IG Client Sentiment hints Dow Jones may stabilize
  • S&P 500 could also see a similar dynamic unfold
  • Germany’s DAX 30 facing diverging price signals

In this week’s webinar on IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), I discussed the outlook for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and DAX 30. IGCS is a contrarian indicator. For a deeper dive into what this means and for fundamental analysis, check out the recording of the session above where I also outlined the road ahead for GBP/USD and AUD/USD starting around the 28-minute mark.

Starts in:
Live now:
Sep 23
( 00:09 GMT )
Join Day 2 of the DailyFX Summit discussing indices
What Do Other Traders Buy/Sell Bets Say About Price Trends?
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Webinar has ended

Dow Jones Sentiment Outlook - Mixed

The IGCS gauge implies that retail traders are about 42% net long the Dow Jones. Downside exposure has decreased by 8.71% over a daily basis while increased 20.75% over a weekly one. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offersa mixed trading bias.

Starts in:
Live now:
Sep 23
( 00:09 GMT )
Learn using IGCS in your own trading strategy
What Do Other Traders Buy/Sell Bets Say About Price Trends?
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended
Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecast: Will Prices Stabilize Further?

Dow Jones Futures Technical Analysis

Dow Jones futures seemed to have stabilized after recent losses following a top just under current 2020 peaks. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) seems to have reinstated the focus to the upside after prices failed to push under the 27312 – 27624 inflection zone. A close above 28197 may precede further gains.

Follow me on Twitter @ddubrovskyFX for updates on price trends and retail positioning!

Dow Jones Futures – Daily Chart

Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecast: Will Prices Stabilize Further?

Dow Jones Chart Created in Trading View

S&P 500 Sentiment Outlook - Mixed

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 38% of retail investors are net long the S&P 500. Upside exposure has decreased 14.79% while downside bets have increased by 13.05% over a weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a further mixed trading bias.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecast: Will Prices Stabilize Further?

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Following a top around the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 3577, S&P 500 futures seemed to have stabilized. Prices were caught within the 3337 – 3397 inflection range. The 50-day SMA also held. A push above 3397 could reinstate the focus to the upside. A daily close under the 50-day SMA could risk opening the door to a reversal.

Equities Forecast
Equities Forecast
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What is the outlook for equities this quarter?
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S&P 500 Futures – Daily Chart

Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecast: Will Prices Stabilize Further?

S&P 500 Chart Created in Trading View

DAX 30 Sentiment Outlook - Bullish

The IGCS gauge implies that about 39% of retail traders are net long the German DAX 30. Upside exposure has increased 4.82% and 31.24% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
Learn more about how IGCS is a contrarian indicator
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Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecast: Will Prices Stabilize Further?

DAX 30 Technical Analysis

DAX 30 futures could be at risk of a broader pullback as prices trade within a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern. This also follows persistent negative RSI divergence, a sign of fading upside momentum. A daily close under the floor of the wedge could open the door to a reversal.

DAX 30 Futures – Daily Chart

Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecast: Will Prices Stabilize Further?

DAX 30 Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from September 15th Report

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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