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Gold Waiting for Trigger Near $1300, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable

Gold Waiting for Trigger Near $1300, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable

2015-01-28 07:14:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Be Preparing to Correct Downward
  • S&P 500 Still Waiting for Clear-Cut Directional Cues
  • Crude Oil Treading Water, Gold Digesting Sub-$1300

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to decline after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 11725, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11640. Alternatively, a move above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level clears the way for a test of the 50% Fib at 11983.

Gold Waiting for Trigger Near $1300, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 2040.60 exposes the 38.2% level at 2023.60. Alternatively, a turn back above the 14.6% Fib at 2051.10 aims for the December 23 high at 2068.10.

Gold Waiting for Trigger Near $1300, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate after finding resistance above the $1300/oz figure. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1274.30 exposes the 38.2% level at 1253.77. Alternatively, a push above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 1292.73 targets the 23.6% threshold at 1305.39.

Gold Waiting for Trigger Near $1300, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling having attempted to recover as expected. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 50.49 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib expansion at 47.07 targets the 23.6% threshold at 43.79.

Gold Waiting for Trigger Near $1300, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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