Oil, Gold Push Higher as US Intelligence Suggests Russia Could Invade Ukraine Next Week
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Russia, Ukraine, Oil, Gold, US Dollar – Talking Points
- US intel suggests Putin has given “green light” on Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Gold, Oil, USD all bid in immediate reaction to prospect of war
- UK evacuating embassy in Kiev, Biden asks US citizens to leave Ukraine
Risk-assets plummeted on Friday afternoon as reports surfaced suggesting US intelligence believes a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine could come “as early as next week.” New intelligence revealed on Friday states that Vladimir Putin has given the supposed “green light” on an invasion of Ukraine, and US officials fear that move could come before the conclusion of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that a Russian invasion could begin “at any time,” with further intel suggesting that Russia continues to buildup forces along the Ukrainian border.
With the security environment deteriorating, the US has continued efforts to reduce staff situated in Ukraine. This follows last month’s order for families of US diplomats at the Kyiv embassy to leave the country. Along with the United States, the UK, Japan, Israel, Norway, and South Korea all urged citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.
Oil Daily Chart
Created with TradingView
With the threat of war escalating, oil noticeably caught a strong bid as risk-assets pulled back broadly. While the market has been on a tear of late, WTI shot above $94.50 as the Russia-Ukraine developments crossed the wires. The potential for conflict and further sanctions on Russia continues to buoy oil markets in a period where many banks have increased calls for $100 oil. Gold was also provided a bid with the US Dollar as investors flocked to safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index briefly traded back through the 96 handle, while gold flirted with $1,860 before cooling.
Gold 1 Hour Chart
Chart created with TradingView
As markets prepare to close for the weekend, the potential remains for events to escalate significantly. In a press briefing on Friday National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan requested that all Americans currently in Ukraine “leave immediately.” In asking for Americans to depart in the next 24 to 48 hours, Sullivan stated that “the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough.” More to come as this situation continues to unfold.
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--- Written by Brendan Fagan, Intern
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.