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UK Pound Steadies, Exit Polls May Underestimate Conservative Vote

UK Pound Steadies, Exit Polls May Underestimate Conservative Vote

David Cottle, Analyst


Talking Points:

  • The UK currency slid sharply on initial exit polls suggesting no overall majority winner
  • However initial results suggest that the incumbent Conservatives may do better than those polls indicated
  • There is a long way to go before a definitive result is reached

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The British Pound has steadied a little in the Asia/Pacific session Friday as initial UK general election results suggest that an overall majority may still be within reach of the ruling Conservative Party.

The currency fell sharply earlier on the first broadcasters’ exit poll which flagged a “hung parliament”- one with no single overall winner. Given the proxitmity of crucial Brexit negotiations – due to start in ten days’ time – a hung parliament could represent the nightmare scenario for Sterling investors. Indeed it may precipitate another election, with Brexit talks presumably on hold.

The BBC is now saying that the initial exit polls 2% gain for the Conservatives is now up to about 8%. This is probably a large enough swing if maintained to give the party a narrow overall majority. But only 16 of 650 seats have yet declared so there remains a very long way to go.

There has been no change of party for any declared seat so far.

GBP/USD slid from $1.2966 to $1.2718 after that initial exit poll, but has steadied around that lower level since.

So far the Conservatives have held Nuneaton, which has been a key bellweather seat sinc 1983, but failed to gain Darlington- a marginal they hoped to win.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.