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Euro to Look Past German Data, US Dollar May Rise on Q1 GDP

Euro to Look Past German Data, US Dollar May Rise on Q1 GDP

2016-04-28 05:27:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Euro to look past German CPI, jobs data on limited ECB policy view impact
  • US Dollar focused on 1Q GDP report to shape Fed rate hike timing outlook
  • Yen and NZ Dollar rise as BOJ, RBNZ disappoint the markets’ dovish hopes

The preliminary set of April’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to decline to 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent in the prior month. Separately, labor-market figures are expected see no change in the ranks of the unemployment, with the jobless rate steady at 6.2 percent.

On balance, both outcomes are unlikely to see a lasting response from the Euro considering their limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. Speaking after last week’s rate decision, central bank President Mario Draghi argued that officials will need more time to assess the impact of a large stimulus expansion unveiled in March before considering further easing. With the first TLRO II operation is due in June, meaning the ECB is likely to remain in wait-and-see mode for a while yet.

Later in the day, first-quarter US GDP figures will capture the spotlight. The annualized growth rate is expected to decline to 0.6 percent, the weakest in a year. The release may prove pivotal to Fed rate hike bets after the central bank conspicuously removed the reference to global risks in yesterday’s policy statement (as we expected), refocusing attention on domestic news-flow.

As it stands, traders’ priced-in outlook envisions a single rate hike in the fourth quarter of 2016. A strong GDP print that clashes with status-quo expectations and hints the Fed’s latest call for two hikes this year may be validated stands to broadly boost the US Dollar. A soft reading stands to yield the opposite result, although an upside surprise is likely to be more market-moving that the alternative considering investors’ already-dovish posture.

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, adding nearly 2 percent against its major counterparts after the Bank of Japanopted against a further easing of monetary policy. Traders had been speculating on further stimulus after rumors about the introduction of a negative lending rate emerged last week. The New Zealand Dollar likewise advanced after the RBNZ poured cold water on imminent rate cut speculation.

Are FXCM traders buying or selling the US Dollar, and what does that mean? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Official Cash Rate (APR 28)

2.25%

2.25%

2.25%

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (MAR)

3.2%

3.3%

3.3%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAR)

1.30

1.28

1.28

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (MAR)

-5.3%

-4.1%

1.2%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (MAR)

-0.1%

0.0%

0.3%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (MAR)

-0.3%

-0.2%

0.0%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAR)

0.7%

0.8%

0.8%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (APR)

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (APR)

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (APR)

0.6%

0.5%

0.6%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (MAR)

-1.1%

-1.4%

0.5%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

1.4%

0.5%

-2.3%

23:50

JPY

Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales (MAR)

-1.2%

-0.9%

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR P)

3.6%

2.8%

-5.2%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR P)

0.1%

-1.6%

-1.2%

01:00

CNY

Swift Global Payments CNY (MAR)

1.88%

-

1.76%

01:30

AUD

Export price index (QoQ) (1Q)

-4.7%

-1.5%

-5.4%

01:30

AUD

Import price index (QoQ) (1Q)

-3.0%

-0.9%

-0.3%

03:01

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base (¥)

80t

80t

80t

03:01

JPY

BOJ Basic Balance Rate

0.10%

0.10%

0.10%

03:01

JPY

BOJ Macro Add-On Balance Rate

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

03:01

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

-0.10%

-0.10%

-0.10%

04:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (MAR)

1.2%

-

-6.9%

05:00

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (MAR)

1.1%

1.0%

1.1%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR)

8.4%

-0.6%

7.8%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (MAR)

0.993m

0.905m

0.974m

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (MAR)

19.8%

-

-12.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

05:25

CHF

SNB Earnings (1Q)

-

-

Low

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Price (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

0.8%

Medium

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Price (YoY) (APR)

5.0%

5.7%

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (000's) (APR)

0k

0k

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (APR)

6.2%

6.2%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Economic Confidence (APR)

103.4

103.0

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (APR)

0.14

0.11

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Confidence (APR)

-4.0

-4.2

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Services Confidence (APR)

10.0

9.6

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (APR F)

-9.3

-9.3

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (APR P)

-0.2%

0.8%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (APR P)

0.1%

0.3%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1139

1.1229

1.1275

1.1319

1.1365

1.1409

1.1499

GBP/USD

1.4253

1.4400

1.4471

1.4547

1.4618

1.4694

1.4841

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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