News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.81%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 65.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/nFlMXsEQor
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/p7l6voNLTR
  • #DJIA futures eyeing a retest of the February record-high (29595.3) after breaking above Falling Wedge resistance A daily close above the January low (28130.2) could signal the resumption of the primary uptrend extending from the March doldrums $DJI #DowJones #WallStreet https://t.co/DKmECFfpGK https://t.co/IBuArQrIJQ
  • @DailyFXTeam Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.32%) S&P 500 (+0.35%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.37%) [delayed] -BBG
  • #Market Snapshot $AUDUSD and $EURUSD drifting from session-highs as the haven-associated $JPY attempts to claw back lost ground. #SP500 futures, #Gold and #crudeoil all moving higher while the #ASX200 struggles to penetrate key resistance at 6,000 https://t.co/07OdgCzeZD
  • Join @DanielGMoss's #Webinar at 10:00 PM ET/2:00 AM GMT for his weekly coverage of trading prep for $AUDUSD in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/wi1qabrtHJ https://t.co/yUfAnqiYEs
  • Dow Jones climbed a second day on fiscal stimulus hopes. All 9 Dow sectors were up. Traders face a quiet calendar day, with the 1st presidential debate closely eyed. The live TV debate will be on air from 9:00 to 10:30am Singapore time on Wednesday. https://t.co/vyVHRqDCMo
  • According to John Hopkins University, Coronavirus deaths globally have surpassed 1 million people
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/7meK4cF0U9
  • ❗Heads up for #Rupee $USDINR traders! The #RBI monetary policy announcement originally set for October 1 is going to be rescheduled at a later date, tbd, Will update once time is known - https://t.co/qVnd9BAnSl
Crude Oil Prices Diverge from Risk Trends as US Dollar Gains

Crude Oil Prices Diverge from Risk Trends as US Dollar Gains

2016-07-12 06:22:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil slips below $45/bbl despite swelling risk appetite
  • Gold prices edge lower but familiar range remains in place
  • Comments from Federal Reserve, BOE officials in the focus

Crude oil prices declined despite swelling risk appetite yesterday as the US Dollar swung upward, pressuring assets prices denominated in terms of the benchmark currency. Gold prices likewise declined, reflecting the same dynamic. The greenback found broad-based strength as a sharp USD/JPY rally echoed elsewhere in the FX space.

Curiously, Fed policy bets appear to have played a role as well. Rate hike expectations have quietly firmed having plunged in the wake of the UK Brexit referendum. Indeed, the chance of a hike by year-end (embedded in Fed Funds futures) is now 28.7 percent compared with 11.8 percent last week. The rate level implied in the December 2016 contract posted the largest daily gain in 2 weeks yesterday.

Cautiously hawkish rhetoric from Esther George and Loretta Mester – Presidents of the Kansas City and Cleveland Fed branches respectively – may have helped inspire signs of life in the US policy outlook. It will be interesting to see if less overtly hawkish officials pick up the same narrative. Comments from Governor Daniel Tarullo as well as St. Louis and Minneapolis Fed Presidents James Bullard and Neel Kashaki are due to cross the wires today.

On the sentiment front, Brexit-related news flow is back in the spotlight. The Bank of England will publish minutes from the post-referendum FPC meeting and policymakers including Governor Carney will testify on financial stability before Parliament’s Treasury Committee. With the markets steadying after a sharp deterioration in financial conditions in the vote’s immediate aftermath, traders may be most interested in what the central bank is doing to soften Brexit’s longer-term implications.

Where are gold and crude oil prices heading in 3Q? See our forecasts here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are marking time in a narrow range after finding resistance below the $1400/oz figure. Near-term support is at 1349.42, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close below that exposing the 23.6% level at 1333.62. Alternatively, a move above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1376.74 sees the next upside barrier at 1402.36, the 38.2% threshold.

Crude Oil Prices Diverge from Risk Trends as US Dollar Gains

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are eyeing support at 41.86, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, after breaking below the 23.6% level at 45.60. A further push beneath this boundary exposes the 50% Fib at 38.84. Alternatively, a reversal back above 45.60 – now recast as resistance – aims for a falling trend line at 48.87.

Crude Oil Prices Diverge from Risk Trends as US Dollar Gains

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES