News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/HJpngnerzY https://t.co/g6X8ABQDwY
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your USD/INR market update here:https://t.co/ed4QR7QQOn https://t.co/gDWYNtm2UY
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/Q7TcbrYXjl
  • #Gold prices have plunged nearly 11% off the record highs with a breakout risking further losses. Here are technical trade levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Get your #metals update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/7p3jPx6nQd https://t.co/yxymjCHti6
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true.Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:https://t.co/A4dqGMPylo https://t.co/yZzArpGs2h
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/VcNnCjm0B2
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/AiLoS7DrEQ
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/HicBmGrokK
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/5lbyBJeeA7
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/lAFyv1gM0P https://t.co/ubLimoYAcr
EUR/USD Outlook Mired Ahead of NFP Amid Mixed ECB Rhetoric

EUR/USD Outlook Mired Ahead of NFP Amid Mixed ECB Rhetoric

2017-10-04 19:14:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Sign Up & Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song to Discuss Key FX Themes & Potential Trade Setups.

EUR/USD remains at risk of facing a larger correction ahead of the next European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on October 26 as the pair fails to retain the bullish trend from earlier this year.

With U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) projected to increase another 80K in September, the ongoing improvement in the labor market may keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on course to deliver three rate-hikes in 2017 as Chair Janet Yellen and Co. anticipate to achieve the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon. In turn, a positive development may spur fresh monthly lows in EUR/USD as it boosts the outlook for growth and inflation.

At the same time, recent rhetoric from ECB officials suggest the central bank is in no rush to taper its quantitative easing (QE) program as board member Peter Praet warns the asset-purchase program may run beyond the December deadline. As a result, the ECB may continue to expand its balance sheet in 2018, but President Mario Draghi and Co. may reveal a more detailed exit strategy over the coming months as ‘the economic expansion, which accelerated more than expected in the first half of 2017, continues to be solid and broad-based across countries and sectors.’ With that said, EUR/USD stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds, but the broader shift in market behavior may continue to take shape over the coming months as the ECB shows a greater willingness to gradually move away from its easing-cycle.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

DailyFX 4Q Forecasts Are Now Available

EUR/USD remains at risk for a larger correction followed the failed attempt to test the 1.2130 (50% retracement) hurdle as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish formations from earlier this year. A break/close below the 1.1670 (50% retracement) region raises the risk for a move back towards 1.1580 (100% expansion), but failure to test the August-low (1.1662) may spur range-bound conditions, with the near-term outlook capped by the former-support zone around 1.1860 (161.8% expansion).

EUR/USD Retail Sentiment

EUR/USD Retail Sentiment

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long EUR/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 18 when EUR/USD traded near 1.07897; price has moved 9.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.8% lower than yesterday and 13.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.7% lower than yesterday and 4.7% higher from last week.

For More Updates, Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song for LIVE Analysis!

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES