Crude broke above the 50% retracement of the June β August decline last week but failed at the 200-day moving average on Friday. Interestingly the commodity failed near the 200-day moving average in June as well before falling nearly 40% so the commodity needs to be watched closely here for a possible resumption of the broader downtrend. Key downside pivots look to be around 45.80 and 44.10 with a daily close below the latter needed to confirm the start of a more serious decline. The 50% retracement of the June -August decline near 49.60 and the 200-day moving average at 50.88 remain key levels to watch on the upside
Looking to sell crude on strength against 49.60. A daily close above this level would refocus higher.
