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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Rise But Downtrend Unbroken

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Rise But Downtrend Unbroken

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • Euro breaks seven-week resistance, eyes double top below 1.12 figure
  • Extending higher threatens to put dominant downtrend into question
  • Near-term chart setup hints upside momentum may be ebbing already

The Euro neutralized would-be bearish cues with a punch above resistance capping gains since mid-October. The double top in the 1.1176-83 area is now in view, with daily close above that casting doubt on the case for downtrend resumption signaled by the breakdown in early November.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

Perhaps most worryingly for sellers, such a move would put prices within a hair of puncturing resistance guiding them lower since June 2018. The barrier is now just above the 1.12 figure, but its downward slope brings it ever-closer to the double top. If buyers take their time, both may yet fall simultaneously.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Rise But Downtrend Unbroken

Weekly EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

Nevertheless, the dominant trend bias remains bearish absent confirmation otherwise. Moreover, near-term positioning warns that sellers may yet retain the upper hand. Negative RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart speaks to ebbing upside momentum and may precede topping. Time will tell if it does so here.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Rise But Downtrend Unbroken

4-hour EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

EUR/USD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% 4% 4%
Weekly 12% -21% -8%
What does this say about where EUR/USD may go next?
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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