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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Break Has Downtrend Back in Play

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Break Has Downtrend Back in Play

Ilya Spivak,
What's on this page


  • Euro breaks October support line, signaling end of corrective upswing
  • Downtrend resumption might set the stage to probe below 1.07 figure
  • Risk/reward skew hints a bounce may precede bearish follow-through

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The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected, carving out what looks to be a double top at resistance just below the 1.12 figure. The pair conspicuously broke support guiding the recovery since early October, suggesting the near-term bias has switched to a bearish setting.

Sellers now face support in the 1.1063-71 area. A break below this barrier confirmed on a closing basis sees the next downside threshold in the 1.0989-1.10 zone. Resistance is in the 1.1130-40 region, marked by the underside of the broken trend line and short-term support shelf. The 1.1176-83 area beckons thereafter.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

4-hour EURUSD chart created in TradingView

Zooming out to the daily chart to assess broader positioning, it appears as though October’s corrective upswing has given way to resumption of the longer-term downtrend. A leg lower in line with the trend average since mid-2018 would imply a move to test below the 1.07 figure on the horizon.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EURUSD chart created in TradingView

Traders may find entering short unattractive on risk/reward grounds as prices rest squarely at support however. That might diminish scope for near-term follow-through, allowing space for a bounce before any broader selloff gathers steam. Sellers may find a tactically attractive entry point therein.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.