DailyFX US AM Digest: Euro's Attention Back on Catalonia; Pound Waits for CPI
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The US Dollar is positive on the day but has given up some of its earlier gains as it prepares to stare down a quiet economic calendar for Monday. The Euro has been the center of attention thus far, with more tension in the Catalan crisis emerging after Catalonia’s regional president failed to clarify whether or not independence was declared. For now, risks have been contained to local assets like Spanish Bonos and the IBEX 30. The British Pound is holding onto its gains from last week as traders have an eye towards the September UK CPI report tomorrow, which should show +3% headline inflation, securing a 25-bps rate hike from the BOE at its November policy meeting in the process (overnight index swaps are currently pricing in a 76% chance of a hike).
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, October 16, 2017 – North American Releases
The North American economic calendar is light on Monday, with no ‘high’ rated data releases or events, and the only ‘medium’ ranked event – the US Monthly Budget Statement – is one that will likely be overlooked. In fact, for the first half of this week, the North American economic calendar will be on the lighter side, with both ‘high’ rated data releases or events for Canada and the United States coming on Friday, in the form of the September Canadian CPI report and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on monetary policy since the global financial crisis.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, October 16, 2017
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 39.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.56 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.08123; price has moved 9.2% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 9.2% higher than yesterday and 1.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.7% higher than yesterday and 19.5% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “Yen & Euro Expected Volatility at Opposite Ends of the Spectrum” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “FX Markets Turn to Inflation Data from New Zealand, the UK, and Canada” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “COT: EUR/USD & USD/CAD Prices Correct, Futures Positioning Doesn’t” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Political Worries Undermining Euro, Spanish Stocks” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
- “Euro Awaits CPI Release as Last Pit Stop Before ECB Next Week” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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