News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.79%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 65.81%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/pPMQB3Sgtf
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY (JUL) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -10% Previous: -13.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • Norges Bank - total liquidity has been unevenly distributed between banks, leading to considerable uncertainty over supply of NOK. Adds that they will offer fully allotted F-Loans at fixed rates with 1 day maturities
  • London put on national Covid watch list amid recent surge in cases
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.29% Gold: -0.42% Silver: -1.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OTTxCl6GJR
  • Spanish health minister says the government recommends a total lockdown in Madrid
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.22% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.25% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/37yFAZ530P
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/Fa4sDLIjww
  • 🇫🇷 Unemployment Benefit Claims (AUG) Actual: -171K Previous: -172.2K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • $GBP https://t.co/Gl9Hkc0nTr
EUR/USD, DXY Triangles Persist as Markets Eye French Elections

EUR/USD, DXY Triangles Persist as Markets Eye French Elections

2017-04-21 11:58:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- No surprise that DXY Index remains in its consolidation as its largest component, the Euro, refuses to commit to a direction before this weekend's French presidential elections.

- USD/JPY failure to gain traction to the topside, coupled with rebound in Gold, highlights traders' weariness towards risk.

- See the entirety of the DailyFX Q2'17 forecasts - important reading for the holiday weekend!

Upcoming Webinars for Week of April 16 to April 21, 2017

Today at 9:30 EDT/13:30 GMT: DailyFX US Desk Round Table with Paul Robinson, Christopher Vecchio, and Tyler Yell

See the full DailyFX Webinar Schedule for other upcoming strategy sessions.

With the first round of the French presidential elections fast approaching this Sunday, April 23, traders have remained noncommittal about pushing various FX pairs in any concerted direction.

Ahead of this Sunday's vote, the overall frontrunner, Emmanuel Macron – who, according to French polling institute Ifop has the best chance to beat right-wing populist Marine Le Pen in a second round runoff – has seen his odds of winning increase after a brief dip the past two weeks. According to Oddschecker, the aggregate probability of a Macron victory has risen back to 57.2% from 52.9% last Friday.

With first round polling figures showing that the top four candidates are within four percentage points of one another (Le Pen, Macron, Fillon, and Melenchon), it is very possible that Macron doesn’t make it to the second round – which would be a veritable reason for concern for the Euro.

Certainly, market participants have priced in a significant move around Sunday's results, with one-month implied volatility for EUR/USD having increased from 7.25% to 12.63% over the past six weeks, and it now sits at its highest level since the Brexit vote in June 2016. Likewise, EUR/USD one-week implied volatility is at 19%, eclipsing the highs ahead of the US presidential election in November and back at its highest level since the Brexit vote.

Traders should brace themselves for a gap open at the market on Sunday. The results should begin to trickle out around 20:00 CEST in Paris, or roughly 14:00 EDT in New York. By the time markets open in New York three hours later, any late results should be declared already and markets will know who is advancing in to the second round of voting on May 7.

The best case scenario for the Euro? A Macron-Fillon runoff, in which case EUR/USD could easily trade through 1.0900. The worst case scenario for the Euro? A Le Pen-Melenchon runoff, which could easily see EUR/USD make a run down towards 1.0500. Overall, if Emmanuel Macron makes it into the second round of voting, as the candidate with the best odds to beat Marine Le Pen, then the Euro could see a relief rally.

How could French elections impact the Euro? See our Q2 EUR/USD forecast.

See the above video for a technical review of the DXY Index, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, CAD/JPY, Gold, and Crude Oil.

Read more: EUR Lifted by Policy Commentary; JPY, Gold Pulling Back

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES