Talking Points:
- The March Canadian Employment Change report is due on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
- Markets are expecting the Canadian labor market to cool off after exceptionally strong gains in January and February.
- Retail traders are neutral on the Canadian Dollar, having relinquished their bearish bias over the past week.
Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.
04/05 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (MAR)
The first two months of the year have produced strong labor market reports for the Canadian economy, and as a result, markets are anticipating a quieter March. The January employment change was 66.8K jobs, while the topline February reading came in at 55.9K.Even though the Bloomberg consensus calls for the March report to only show 10K jobs added,the unemployment rate is due to stay on hold at 5.8%. With energy markets continuing their rebound since the start of the year – nearly 11% of the Canadian economy is tied to oil – it’s likely that jobs growth remained positive in Canada through the end of Q1’19.
The ongoing improvement in Canadian economic data has given traders pause over dragging forward rate expectations any further. Two weeks ago, the odds of a 25-bps rate cut were priced-in at 28%; currently, they reside at 20.2%.
Pairs to Watch: CADJPY, EURCAD, USDCAD
USDCAD Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (December 2018 to April 2019)
The better than expected January Canadian GDP report has helped keep USDCAD in check, despite broad advances by the DXY Index overall. In turn, the path of least resistance pointing to the topside proved false. As such, if there is one currency on the ready to take advantage of US Dollar weakness, it may be the Canadian Dollar – particularly as oil prices stay elevated.
A double top pattern may be forming with respect to the two March swing highs, and there is evidence that momentum is shifting to the downside. Not only have both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics turned lower, USDCAD price is now below its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope. A move down towards the March low near 1.3251 appears increasingly likely.
Read more: Top 5 Events: March US Nonfarm Payrolls & EURUSD Price Outlook
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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com
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