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  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.94%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.17%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wSWdSw9NMi
  • WTI crude oil price action has been quite volatile today around Iran nuclear deal talks. The commodity is currently down -1.2% on the session after falling as much as -4.3% from intraday highs. #OOTT $CL_F $USO https://t.co/IPeHsxVYO8
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.14% FTSE 100: -0.17% Wall Street: -0.21% Germany 30: -0.22% France 40: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7ak6BIkvMw
  • Biden administration delays revamp of Trump's blacklist for China investments -BBG $USDCNH $SHCOMP
  • $EURUSD breakout stalled (so far) around the same spot that caught the feb top fib from the same study that caught the low in march (at the 38.2) https://t.co/ikWed0YfwE https://t.co/OfvmSW2V4S
  • The USD/CAD breakdown has stalled into lateral technical support at 1.2048/61 and the focus is on a reaction off this mark. Get your $USDCAD @MBForex here:https://t.co/LMTzDyI1df https://t.co/hD74PjjJHk
  • US Dollar Outlook: DXY Index Hammered as Treasury Yields Ebb -via @DailyFX Link to Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2021/05/18/us-dollar-outlook-dxy-index-hammered-as-treasury-yields-ebb.html $USD $DXY #Trading https://t.co/2zVfDWI5Y7
  • AUD/USD attempts to retrace the decline following the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) as it bounces back from the 50-Day SMA (0.7715). Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/EIQ7utBH9A https://t.co/RcWf6JgYX5
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.64%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.33%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/EhQn4EqJYE
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.06% Gold: -0.03% Oil - US Crude: -1.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ALjM4GEwOj
Top 5 Events: March Canadian Jobs Report & USDCAD Price Outlook

Top 5 Events: March Canadian Jobs Report & USDCAD Price Outlook

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- The March Canadian Employment Change report is due on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

- Markets are expecting the Canadian labor market to cool off after exceptionally strong gains in January and February.

- Retail traders are neutral on the Canadian Dollar, having relinquished their bearish bias over the past week.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/05 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (MAR)

The first two months of the year have produced strong labor market reports for the Canadian economy, and as a result, markets are anticipating a quieter March. The January employment change was 66.8K jobs, while the topline February reading came in at 55.9K.Even though the Bloomberg consensus calls for the March report to only show 10K jobs added,the unemployment rate is due to stay on hold at 5.8%. With energy markets continuing their rebound since the start of the year – nearly 11% of the Canadian economy is tied to oil – it’s likely that jobs growth remained positive in Canada through the end of Q1’19.

bank of canada rate expectations, boc rate odds

The ongoing improvement in Canadian economic data has given traders pause over dragging forward rate expectations any further. Two weeks ago, the odds of a 25-bps rate cut were priced-in at 28%; currently, they reside at 20.2%.

Pairs to Watch: CADJPY, EURCAD, USDCAD

USDCAD Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (December 2018 to April 2019)

USDCAD price chart

The better than expected January Canadian GDP report has helped keep USDCAD in check, despite broad advances by the DXY Index overall. In turn, the path of least resistance pointing to the topside proved false. As such, if there is one currency on the ready to take advantage of US Dollar weakness, it may be the Canadian Dollar – particularly as oil prices stay elevated.

A double top pattern may be forming with respect to the two March swing highs, and there is evidence that momentum is shifting to the downside. Not only have both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics turned lower, USDCAD price is now below its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope. A move down towards the March low near 1.3251 appears increasingly likely.

Read more: Top 5 Events: March US Nonfarm Payrolls & EURUSD Price Outlook

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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