News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get our analysts’ view on the key fundamentals for indices in Q2. Download now. https://t.co/Etdyanp76f https://t.co/n2wxfyMsJt
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/5KaUvfGM4I
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/9Bjkh5413e
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/FqAsp91Gia
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cKOUmtj7Dj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/cDcjl3Ue09
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/KWOX5wSipe
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/cwSWCpKtaj
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/zu5hMovbz6
My Top 3 Charts to Watch Over the Coming Week

My Top 3 Charts to Watch Over the Coming Week

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Markets Talking Points:

  • Crude oil will start the week with a traditional breakout tapping into more significant themes than just a technical groundswell
  • EURUSD is a prime candidate of frustrating range, but any progress it finds will be a strong barometer on global fundamental issues
  • As risk appetite seems to stretch its legs once again, focus on leverage calls attention to the explosion of government debt

See how retail traders are positioning in US Crude Oil, EURUSD, FX majors, indices, commodities and cryptocurrency on an intraday basis using theDailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page.

There are a range of impressive charts shaping up across the financial system. The S&P 500 and Dow are continuing their climb back towards the record highs set in October. Gold has rallied despite the positive sentiment lean and firm Dollar. And I made my case recently for USDCHF as a large wedge that still has considerable room for the Dollar to rally should it find an unexpected charge. Yet, as impressive as these pictures are, they are not my top three charts to watch moving forward.

1 Crude Oil Sports a Head-and-Shoulders Break and Connect to Critical Themes

Perhaps one of the most technically-loaded charts among the markets I regularly keep track of comes from the benchmark US crude oil contract, WTI. It is difficult to miss the very large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern the commodity has carved out over the past few months. In such patterns, the lead in to the congestion is as important as the supposed reversal structure itself. Here, we have the incredible slide between October and December to reflect the wind up. Therefore, the break above the supposed 'neckline' that falls at the convergence of a multi-week trendline of highs and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the aforementioned tumble is no small development. That said, there is a vast difference between a break and a trend. Follow through often requires more motivation than just a simple technical trigger, and therein rests the true success or failure of this move. It won't be headlines on production from OPEC or important non-OPEC members, nor US inventory updates that facilitate a trend of this scale. True risk appetite and the related conviction in global growth are the deep themes that would shrug off the restraints on this market.

Chart of US Oil (Daily)

US Crude Oil Chart

2 EURUSD's Range Signals More than Just Frustration for Trend-Starved Traders

The second chart on my list is the EURUSD's progress. Here, there is a very different perspective than what we see in crude. Whereas the commodity is on the cusp of a significant technical transition, this benchmark pair is still comfortably within its range. In fact, the 20-day ATR (Average True Range) on this pair has dropped to its lowest level since the Summer of 2014 - a period that haunts FX traders for how extreme it was. This restriction to a 1.1550 to 1.1200 span belies the laundry list of critical fundamental themes that are all converging on the pair. Relative monetary policy and rate forecasts is critical and unresolved. Risk trends are a related concern which does not find an overt return and haven currency in the pairing - despite a clear yield differential. Growth considerations, political unbalance and the risk of aggressive trade policy adoption (a trade war could be provoked between the US and Eurozone should auto tariffs be pursued) are all critically important yet lost in the deluge. This mix is so remarkable, that when it does clear; it must be developing under remarkable circumstances. In other words, if you want to know what critical fundamental theme is prevailing for the broader financial system, keep tabs on EURUSD.

Chart of EURUSD and the 20-day ATR (Daily)

EURUSD and 20-day ATR Chart

3 A Swell in US Federal Debt May Prove the Next 'Monetary Policy' or 'Trade War' Theme

This is where I may lose people looking for a quick turn or charge in a specific asset, but this chart's importance is far more significant for the long-term. The US is facing an unprecedented $22 trillion debt and a deficit that is expected to charge to levels that should make us more conscious of budgets. The US is projected to run a 4.6% deficit-to-GDP ratio this year - the highest in a non-recession year on record. This spending meant to amplify growth, but it has thus far done little to boost the restricted pace of a US economy that is conforming to wavering experienced across the globe. The real issue comes should capital markets start to implode and/or the economy stalls in spite of the government's support. Then what capacity is there to fight a serious problem? The same risk exists with the state of global monetary policy. There is great capacity for this otherwise 'boring' issue to fuel an unrelenting crisis. It could become as ubiquitous a fundamental talking point among investors as trade wars, monetary policy and financial leverage have been at different times over the past two decades.

Chart of the S&P 500 and US Federal Deficit as Ratio of GDP in Red (Annually)

S&P 500 and US Federal Deficit as Percentage of GDP Ratio to 2017

If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES