Technical Overview for Euro, Yen, EUR & GBP Cross-rates, Gold and More

The euro is treading very near important support and needs to hold or else risks declining further. USD/JPY is at key trend-line resistance. GBP crosses are at support on the current pullback. Gold, silver to remain weak.

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Highlights:

• EUR/USD is treading real close to a significant support zone as FOMC, ECB looms
• USD/JPY at long-term trend-line resistance, key to near-term outlook
• GBP versus several currencies are at spots of interest on the current pullback
• Gold may bounce, but has solid resistance levels not far ahead

EUR/USD is trading down near big support in the area of ~11730/11660 (April trend-line, too) and needs to hold this zone if it is to keep a bullish outlook. A decline below will bring the November low into focus and the possibility of a lower-low. If it does breakdown it may still hold and be in the process of carving out a bull-flag since summer. More on that later if relevant. For now, eyes are on the immediate support zone. FOMC & ECB key event-risk today and tomorrow.

EUR/USD: Daily

USD/JPY is at a trend-line dating back to August 2015 and at risk of turning down from here. If it breaks on through it will have a lot of resistance in the 11400s to contend with before it can gain momentum.

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USD/JPY: Daily

AUD/USD is getting jammed up between the September downtrend line and the trend-line rising up from January 2016. Waiting on a resolution here. USD/CAD remains rangebound for now, with good support around 12665 and resistance just over 12900.

Euro-crosses remain weak. EUR/AUD has a ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern on the 4-hr chart we looked at. Needs to have a solid 4-hr closing bar below the ‘neckline’ before becoming official. We also looked at EUR/NZD, EUR/GBP, and EUR/JPY; nothing real appealing there just yet.

EUR/AUD: 4-hr

GBP/USD is trading in a big area of support around 13300, needs to hold for the pullback to not progress into a more aggressive decline. GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, and GBP/CAD are all pulling back to trend and/or horizontal support levels. We also looked at GBP/JPY, but conviction is lacking at the moment. GBP/AUD is particularly interesting because it is at a confluence of support through the lower channel line off the October low, and peaks from May and November. The area around 17615/580 will need to hold if the outlook is to remain positive.

GBP/AUD: Daily

Gold and silver are both poorly postured after big sell-offs. They may receive a lift from here and alleviate short-term oversold conditions, but a bounce is all they look like they will be able to muster at this juncture. Looking to 1220/05 and 15.19/15 as targets for gold and silver, respectively.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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