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Trading the U.S. Dollar's Bear Flag Across Major FX Pairs

Trading the U.S. Dollar's Bear Flag Across Major FX Pairs

2017-08-17 19:56:00
James Stanley, Strategist
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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at FX markets as the U.S. Dollar has appeared to be trying to carve-out a bottoming formation. If you’d like to be more familiar with the methods discussed in this webinar, the following educational articles will help explain:

Using Price Action to Trade Support and Resistance

Support and Resistance in the Forex Market, Part One

- We had discussed the inverse head & shoulders formation in USD/JPY in Market Talk earlier this morning. The key here is a topside break of 111.00 opening the door for bullish continuation.

- We had also looked at a similar, albeit longer-term formation of a similar setup in USD/CHF. Swissy continues to resist around the .9770-.9800 handle. If we do end up seeing a bullish USD-reversal, this could be an attractive setup to marry a strong dollar with a potentially weak Swiss Franc.

- GBP/USD continues to dig-in support around 1.2848, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bullish move. This area is confluent with a trend-line that we looked at in the webinar, and a downside break through this confluent support can open the door for bearish continuation strategies.

- On the other end of the USD-spectrum, we have EUR/USD. EUR/USD is continuing to respond to a zone of support that runs from 1.1685-1.1736. The negative aspect of this support is that it appears to be slowly slipping away, as near-term price action is showing lower highs while sellers tip-toe down to fresh lows. This can open the possibility of a deeper retracement, with longer-term support around 1.1600 or 1.1500.

- USD/CAD has a potential resistance at prior support setup, and given the veracity of the prior down-trend, this could be an attractive swing to work with should resistance show.

- AUD/USD: Variant setup – the Daily looks like a sell to me while the four-hour looks like a buy. I’m standing aside until one side reconciles to offer a cleaner setup.

- NZD/USD: Resistance currently showing around old support of .7335. This can open the door for short-side setups in the pair, in the effort of playing USD-strength.

- We closed by looking at setups across the Yen, and these are the same setups we had looked at last week on the matter in the Analyst Pick that we discussed. If we do see a continuation of ‘risk aversion’ continuing to show, the short side of GBP/JPY can be a very attractive way to play that theme. We looked at a setup here, and prices are finding resistance on the underside of a trend-line that makes up the under-side of an ascending wedge formation.

- We also looked at EUR/JPY to play a potential return of risk tolerance. The 128.52 level is the point of interest here, and if bulls can support prices above the prior swing low of 128.00, the door can be opened to topside continuation strategies.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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