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Dollar Pushes EUR/USD to Verge of Breakdown Ahead of ECB, NFPs

Dollar Pushes EUR/USD to Verge of Breakdown Ahead of ECB, NFPs

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • A market tuned in for hawkish rhetoric responded to Yellen's remarks Friday with a final push towards key USD levels
  • EUR/USD is a best-positioned major for a committed bullish or bearish move; but GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY appeal
  • A dense economic docket the week ahead with fight with a holiday liquidity drain to start us off moving forward

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page. See the standings in the Monthly FXCM Mini trading contest.

Rather than drift off into the weekend with little potential to draw traders' interests; the Dollar roped our attention with a final move that positions us for imminent breakout risk once the markets reopen. Fed Chair Janet Yellen lifted the Greenback from its pullback and positioned a few majors to the borders of key technical breakouts.

EUR/USD is the most pressing of the Dollar pairings with a close just above the combination of its 200-day moving average, channel floor from December and the mid-point of its year-and-a-half range. That said, the GBP/USD reversal, tentative NZD/USD break, lingering AUD/USD trend shift and USD/JPY wedge all deserve a watchful eye.

Looking ahead to the next trading week - and month - the sense of a transition to quiet conditions will be strong as we have the US and UK holiday Monday and the presumption of a quiet June to fulfill comfortable assumptions of a 'Summer lull'. However, there is a glut of event risk in the coming week and the breadth of major event risk moving forward through the month is more likely to usher in serious volatility and perhaps even heavy trends. We look at whats ahead for traders in this weekend Trading Video.

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