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SPX500 Technical Analysis: At Support, but Beware the Monthly Doji

SPX500 Technical Analysis: At Support, but Beware the Monthly Doji

2016-05-02 16:44:00
James Stanley, Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • S&P 500 Technical Strategy: Long triggered with FIbonacci support at 2,065.45.
  • Another top-side, directional trend entry is available with current ‘higher-low’ support; but a Doji on the recently-finished monthly bar could highlight reversal potential for later in the week/month.
  • If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. And if you want something more short-term in nature, check out our SSI indicator.

In our last article, we looked at the S&P working on what could’ve been ‘higher-low’ support at a previously resistant area on the chart. As we had written, traders would likely want to approach trend-resumption entries with caution as we sat ahead of a large group of data for the remainder of the week. We had instead looked for a deeper retracement off of one of three potential support levels using prior price action structure.

The first of those levels came into play on Friday of last week when the S&P crossed below 2,065.45; and this was in the midst of some aggressive selling; it didn’t look like support was going to hold. But by the end of the trading session, pricse had moved back above 2,065, thereby denoting this as potential higher-low support. This could open the door for top-side re-entries using the Friday low for stop placement. But, one area of note that may become relevant later in the week, or perhaps deeper into May:

The Monthly SPX500 chart just posted a Doji formation, which will often show up near the top of a swing. April’s Doji also comes in at a lower-high from the previous swing-high, thereby further denoting reversal potential.

SPX500 Technical Analysis: At Support, but Beware the Monthly Doji

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

This is still a very early observation as we’re in the first trading day after that monthly candle completed, but should price action begin to show lower-lows on the 4-hour chart, a reversal setup may be afoot. The levels of interest to denote those lower-lows would be the same support zones we’ve been investigating at 2,040 and again at 2,021.12.

For now, the daily chart is still showing up-trend, and traders can use the low from Friday to base a stop below 2,052 (the Friday low), with eyes on 2,100 for initial profit targets. This would set up a 1-to-1.5 risk-reward ratio, with secondary profit targets cast towards previous highs at 2,111, and then again at 2,133.

SPX500 Technical Analysis: At Support, but Beware the Monthly Doji

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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