EUR/USD Analysis and Talking Points
- All Eyes on ECB’s Sintra Forum
- Euro Testing 1.06 as Traders Await President Lagarde
EUR: Price action in the FX space has been relatively choppy, which is despite the sizeable moves observed in rates, commodities and equities over recent trading sessions. That being said, as we approach month/quarter/half-year end, noisy price action is likely to persist a little longer. Aside from portfolio rebalancing, eyes will be on the ECB’s Sintra Forum. For those unfamiliar with the Sintra Forum, this is a central banking annual event organised by the ECB, much like the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium in August, where a plethora of central bank governors exchanges views regarding current policy issues.
For the ECB, the focus will be on President Lagarde’s commentary surrounding any additional details on the anti-fragmentation tool. This is perhaps a reason why the Euro has been resilient in face of last week’s poor PMI figures, which provided a stark reminder of the downside risks to growth that the Euro Area faces. For a click list of ECB speakers, click here.
EUR/USD: Topside resistance situated at 1.0600 (June 16/22 highs/50DMA), 1.0636 (2020 low), 1.0700 (round number/psychological level). Support sits at 1.0500 (round number), 1.0470-80 (post-PMI low), 1.0350 (YTD low)
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -23% | 8% | -9% |
| Weekly | -27% | 30% | -4% |
EUR/JPY: Resistance – 144.25 (June 8/22 peak), 145.00 (round number), 145.67 (2013 peak). Support – 141.40 (weekly low/20DMA), 138.50 (50DMA), 137.87 (June 16th low)
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 18% | -2% | 3% |
| Weekly | 79% | -29% | -14% |
EUR/USD Ascending Triangle?
EUR/USD Chart: Hourly Timeframe
Source: Refinitiv
