Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Awaits Inflaton and Chair Powell’s Testimony

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Awaits Inflaton and Chair Powell’s Testimony

Justin McQueen,

USD/CAD Analysis and Talking Points

The Canadian Dollar has suffered in recent sessions amid the pullback across the commodity complex, coupled with a persistent bid in the greenback. However, breakouts have been hard to come by as rate differentials have continued to tighten suggesting USD/CAD is likely to remain a range trade. Elsewhere, what is also noteworthy is the USD failing to extend higher on the back of a 75bps rate hike. This perhaps signals that the greenback may be peaking in the short run, which is what I had been mulling over in yesterday’s note. (Is the USD Peaking)

Looking ahead, today will see the release of the latest inflation report, which will see used cars introduced, while also allocating a higher weight for gasoline. A reminder that at the last BoC meeting the bank stated that they are prepared to act more forcefully to contain inflation, indicating they are willing to hike 75bps. As it stands, money markets are pricing in 68bps worth of tightening at the July meeting, which would increase on the back of a higher-than-expected inflation figure and thus lift the Loonie.

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Justin McQueen
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide

Bank of Canada Rate Expectations

USD/CAD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -10% 4% -1%
Weekly -11% 66% 28%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Big Pivot at 1.3000 for USD/CAD

USD/CAD is once again testing big resistance 1.3000, which has proved to be a stumbling block for the pair after two failed attempts to maintain a foothold above, peaking at 1.3079. While softer oil prices will see limited pullbacks from 1.3000, the USD will be the main driver of this pair and thus eyes will be on Chair Powell’s testimony.

USD/CAD Chart: Weekly Time Frame

Source: Refinitiv

A Helpful Guide to Support and Resistance Trading

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.