News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.71% Silver: 0.20% Gold: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zqmOlNxmzC
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.13% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0T6Gdfci9d
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.41% France 40: 0.99% FTSE 100: 0.54% Wall Street: -0.06% US 500: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/9YQNC5TRy0
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Copom Meeting Minutes due at 11:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-26
  • Defensive stocks have proven critically important when navigating stock market volatility. Find out what are the most defensive stocks here:https://t.co/TMcbMALtbw https://t.co/gEojx3lvZH
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/dWaWQ0MK1V https://t.co/GIR5NQK5G7
  • Italian PM Conte confirms to cabinet that he is resigning - government source https://t.co/tYi5sjp79w
  • BoJ's Kuroda says monetary policy does have some limits in trying to achieve inflation target $JPY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in EUR/JPY are at opposite extremes with 66.22%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RaCg87Zqau
  • Yen, Dollar May Extend Rise as Stocks Fall After China Drains Liquidity - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2021/01/26/US-Dollar-May-Extend-Rise-as-Stocks-Fall-After-China-Drains-Liquidity.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #Dollar #jpy #China #PBOC https://t.co/l14R7r65XH
EUR/USD Susceptible to Range Bound Conditions Through Easter Holiday

EUR/USD Susceptible to Range Bound Conditions Through Easter Holiday

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD struggles to retain the rebound from earlier this week as European officials fail to deliver a comprehensive stimulus package that would cover the monetary union, but the exchange rate may face range bound conditions through the Easter holiday as it fails to extend the series of lower highs and lows carried over from the previous week.

EUR/USD Susceptible to Range Bound Conditions Through Easter Holiday

EUR/USD pulls back from the weekly high (1.0927) as finance ministers representing the European Union (EU) struggle to draw up a joint response to COVID-19, and the nationwide lockdowns across Europe may push the ECB to deploy more non-standard measures as the central bank pledges to “explore all options and all contingencies to support the economy through this shock.

In a recent interview, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that “according to the consensus of economists, each month of confinement will result in a loss of annual growth of 2% to 3% in 2020,” with the central bank head going onto say that “this would imply a decline in GDP from 3.5% to 4%, in the scenario of confinement lasting a few weeks and from -9% to -10% in a longer confinement scenario.”

The comments come a day after the ECB unveiled “a package of temporary collateral easing measures to facilitate the availability of eligible collateral for Eurosystem counterparties to participate in liquidity providing operations,” and the Governing Council may continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the central bank insists that it could revise “some self-imposed limits” in order to ensure the “smooth transmission of its monetary policy in all jurisdictions of the euro area.

Image of ECB announcement

Source: ECB

As a result, the account of the March meetings may highlight a dovish forward guidance as President Lagarde emphasizes that “there is no limit to our commitment to serving the euro area,” but the statement may also reveal a rift within the ECB amid the mixed views surrounding Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT).

In turn, the ECB may attempt to buy time at its next meeting on April 30, but the outlook for monetary policy may continue drag on the Euro as the Governing Council is “fully prepared to increase the size of our asset purchase programmes and adjust their composition, by as much as necessary and for as long as needed.”

With that said, the current environment may keep EUR/USD under pressure especially as the US Dollar benefits from the flight to safety, but the exchange rate may consolidate going into the Easter holiday as it snaps the series of lower highs and lows carried over from the previous week.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of EUR/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the monthly opening range has been a key dynamic for EUR/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 1, with the high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December happened on the first day of the month.
  • The opening range for 2020 showed a similar scenario as EUR/USD marked the high of the month on January 2, with the exchange rate carving the February high during the first trading day of the month.
  • However, the opening range for March was less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the pullback from the yearly high (1.1495) producing a break of the February low (1.0778) as the exchange rate slipped to a fresh 2020 low (1.0636).
  • Nevertheless, the recent recovery in EUR/USD unravels following the string of failed attempt to close above the 1.1140 (78.6% expansion) region, but the exchange rate appears to have marked a failed attempt to test the yearly low (1.0636) amid the lack of momentum to break/close below the 1.0780 (100% expansion) region.
  • In turn, EUR/USD may face range bound conditions over the coming days, with the move above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0830 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0860 (23.6% retracement) opening up the 1.0950 (100% expansion) to 1.0980 (78.6% retracement) region.
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES