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  • ECB President Lagarde: - An ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance is critical - Fiscal measures should be targeted and temporary - EU aid package must become operational without delay #ECB $EUR
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Risks surrounding Euro-area outlook remain tilted to the downside, but less pronounced - Underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued - Inflation is likely to increase in the coming months as pandemic's impact fades #ECB $EUR
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  • ECB President Lagarde: - Resurgence of pandemic has likely led to decline in activity in Q4 2020 - Will also weigh on activity in Q1 2021 - Fiscal policies are supporting households and firms, but consumers are staying cautious #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Lagarde says will monitor developments in the exchange rate Slight change in tone from previously stating they will "very carefully" monitor FX movements
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Euro-area economy contracted in the fourth quarter - Uncertainty remains high - ECB is monitoring exchange rate for its impact on inflation - Ready to use all instruments as needed #ECB $EUR
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Inflation remains very low in the context of weak demand and significant slack - Data confirms pronounced near-term impact on economy and protracted weakness in inflation - Ample degree of monetary stimulus is essential #ECB $EUR
  • 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (JAN) Actual: 26.5 Expected: 12 Previous: 11.1
  • 🇨🇦 New Housing Price Index YoY (DEC) Actual: 4.6% Previous: 4.6%
USD/CAD Breakout in Focus Ahead of NFP, Canada Employment

USD/CAD Breakout in Focus Ahead of NFP, Canada Employment

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Rebound to Gather Pace on Dismal Canada Employment Report.

- USDOLLAR Extends Rebound as ISM Non-Manufacturing Beats Expectations.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.


USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/CAD may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year amid the failed attempts to close below 1.2510 (78.6% retracement), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish formation carried over from January.
  • Even though Canada Employment is anticipated to show another 2.0K expansion in April, an uptick in the jobless rate to an annualized 7.2% from 7.1% may dampen the appeal of the loonie especially if the Participation Rate holds steady at 65.9% for the fifth-consecutive month.
  • Will keep a close eye on the topside targets as USD/CAD appears to have made a meaningful low, with the first hurdle coming in around 1.2930 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2980 (61.8% retracement), followed by 1.3130 (38.2% retracement).
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the FX crowd remains net-long USD/CAD since the first week of April, with the ratio hitting a near-term extreme coming into May as it edged above the +2.00 mark.
  • The ratio continues to come off of recent extreme as it currently sits at +1.06, with long positions 34.5% lower from the previous week, while open interest stands 7.3% below the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






USD/CAD Breakout in Focus Ahead of NFP, Canada EmploymentUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Following the bullish-engulfing, the USDOLLAR may continue to track higher going into the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report amid the recent series of higher highs & lows, while the RSI appears to be threatening the bearish formation carried over from the end of February.
  • A positive development may heighten the appeal of the greenback as the U.S. economy is expected to add another 200K, while Average Hourly Earnings are projected to increase an annualized 2.4% following the 2.3% expansion in March; signs of stronger wage/job growth may boost bets for a Fed rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in June.
  • A break/close above 11,836 (61.8% retracement) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement) may spur a larger recovery in the USDOLLAR, with the next topside region of interest coming in around 11,898 (50% retracement), followed by 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement).
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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