- EUR/USD and USD/CHF follow through on outside weeks
- NZD/USD next bear leg underway
- Emotional trade in silver
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Weekly
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-Last week, FXTW wrote that “the importance of the current juncture in EUR/USD cannot be understated. If resistance from a parallel (August high) and horizontal levels gives way, then EUR/USD could trade to the mid-1.20s, and maybe quickly given that the rate had held a 3+ decade trendline for over a year. The key word in that sentence is ‘if’. A bearish outside week just formed at the combination of parallel and horizontal resistance so respect potential for renewed weakness.” EURUSD ‘followed through’ on the downside this week so look lower from here.
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Weekly
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-There is no change to weekly GBP/USD comments. “Recent price action formed a ‘tweezer bottom’ candlestick formation (FXTW pointed out tweezer bottoms in AUD/USD at the September and January lows). This is a reversal pattern. The fact that the pattern formed amid the chaos of headlines (sentiment extreme on ‘BREXIT’) and at a confluence of trendlines indicates increased risk for a decent sized bounce. General focus is higher, probably until the low 1.50s, although continued failure at an internal trendline is a concern. A crash could then take place into early 2017, based on a 96 month (8 year) cycle low count.”
AUD/USD
Weekly
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-The latest comments noted that “AUD/USD is nearing the October 2013-January 2014 line near .7800. Also, risk of a top is heightened given COT considerations. It remains to be seen whether or not the cycle week that I first presented over a month ago has any influence. Inversion is a possibility. If resistance at .7800 breaks, then the next upside level of interest is probably .7938.” AUD/USD traded higher on an intraweek basis before rollover ever towards the end of the week. The combination of resistance, COT (overheated), and the longer term cycle analysis (1 week off) indicates renewed downside potential.
NZD/USD
Weekly
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-The latest comments noted that “NZD/USD is attempting to break out from a 7 month ascending triangle pattern. The objective from the pattern is mid .7400s although FXTW believes that .71-.72 (2011 low and February 2015 low) is important and could influence for another leg lower. It’s possible that a failed pattern ends up triggering another bear leg.” This week’s reversal argues for the failed pattern interpretation (into slope resistance nonetheless). The next bear leg in NZD/USD may be underway.
Weekly
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-The last note remarked that “there are a host of technical considerations for USD/JPY support between roughly 105 and 106, including the 2002-2007 line, January 2014 high, October 2014 low, and 200 week average. Former support at 110.60 is estimated resistance and strength through that level is needed in order to suggest that a low of some sort is in place.” Silly me, I didn’t consider the 2002-2007 trendline on log scale! When viewed on log scale, the recent low is right at the top side of the trendline (former resistance becomes support is bullish). Focus is higher with initial resistance in the mid-116.00s.
Weekly
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-FXTW views 1.2830 as a pivot. 1.2830 is both the March 2015 high and October 2015 low. Strength through 1.2830 would signal that at least a near term low is in or a near term bottoming pattern is forming. Until then, questions abound but be aware of the June 2015 high at 1.2563 as possible support.
USD/CHF
Weekly
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-There is no change to the latest USD/CHF comments. “USD/CHF made a bullish outside week at the top side of former trendline resistance lines (long and short term). Given long term considerations, this week’s low could be significant. Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here.”
Bonus Chart
Silver Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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-Quite the week for silver. The industrial/precious metal traded within 10 cents or so of its May 2015 high before tapering off. COMEX futures changed hands the most since the week that ended 4/19/13 (exactly 3 years ago). The volume on 4/21 was the most done in one day since 4/15/2013. Activity of this magnitude may indicate at least a short term market top. If weakness does materialize then watch for support in the mid-15.00s over the next few months (top side of former trendline resistance levels on log scale and a horizontal level). I’d want to see that level hold if silver is in the process of forming a major bottoming pattern.
