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US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Who’s Happier? Bears or Central Bankers

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Who’s Happier? Bears or Central Bankers

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Technical Strategy: Short Bias Favored Below 11,895
  • 21-DMA Continues To Act As Firm Resistance on Move Lower
  • Macro Environment Shifting To a Dollar Negative Narrative

On Wednesday, the US Dollar bounced rather aggressively. Some thought the move was pre-positioning for a Dovish Draghi, given how strong the EUR has been lately. However, what’s significant is the level that US Dollar has bounced. When you look across the components of the US Dollar Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD, you can see there is reason to believe we could be around the corner of a turn in the US Dollar.

For now, I won’t hold my breath though. The US Dollar has caught an awfully negative tone from the Fed, which will continue to scare many institutions from bidding up the dollar like we have seen in quarter’s past. If you take a look at WTI Crude Oil, you can see the drop in the US Dollar has helped lift the price of commodities, which will start to work its way into inflation numbers allowing the central bankers to start patting themselves on the back. That being said, Wednesday’s Bullish Day for the Dollar may have a hard time continuing higher.

We’ve Just Hit A Corrective Equality Point with the March 2015 Correction

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Who’s Happier? Bears or Central Bankers

On the chart above, you can see that we’ve recently equaled the drop of March 2015-May. I specifically use that zone, and not April, due to my interpretation of the Elliott Wave Count that is labeled. Either way, you can see a channel drawn off the March 2015 highs and May lows brings use to potential support, even if short-term

For now, short-term strength may be realized, but resistance is likely to be found around the 21-DMA. Currently sitting at 11,896. The 21-DMA has acted as reliable resistance since the breakdown started accelerating in early-March. While value traders are understandably looking for something cheap to buy, given the Fed’s narrative and the recent distaste other central banks seem to have for weakening their currencies at the drop of a hat, it appears the US Dollar weakness season is yet to fully turn. A break above the 21-DMA, and further above 12,030 would likely be the first firm indications I was wrong and the support mentioned above was more significant than I realized.

Shorter-Term US Dollar Chart Favors Focus on 21-DMA & 12,030

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Who’s Happier? Bears or Central Bankers

If the Elliott Wave Scenario is playing out as labeled on the first chart, we’d expect to see a strong resumption of the US Dollar bull market. If we break below weekly support, 11,787, it’s likely that we’re in for a more material decline. Below 11,787, the next expected support would be the June low of 11,732 followed by the May low of 11,634.

Shorter-Term US Dollar Technical Levels

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Who’s Happier? Bears or Central Bankers

Interested In our Analyst’s Longer-Term Dollar Outlook? Please sign up for our free dollar guide here.


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