News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.70% Gold: 0.95% Oil - US Crude: 0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pdcpeF9zbc
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.61%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 73.13%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dqXvVj6gcX
  • Fed Beige Book: - Districts saw modest price increases since last report - Food, autos, and appliances increased significantly in price - Firms continue to take on additional costs related to Covid, including ppe and technology to work from home $SPX $NDX $DXY
  • Fed Beige Book: - Economic output continued to increase across all Fed Districts at a slight to moderate pace - Manufacturing activity increased at a moderate pace in general - Consumer spending growth continues to be positive $DXY
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.05% Germany 30: 0.05% France 40: -0.11% FTSE 100: -0.12% Wall Street: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/qRmsVvTyG6
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Beige Book due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • Senate Democrats have the votes required to block GOP on aid bill $DXY $SPX
  • Senator Shelby says he is open to $1.9 trillion virus aid package depending on details - BBG
  • Oh look at that, stimulus hopes are off again. The market is definitely growing apathetic towards a follow up stimulus. The issue though is that status quo translates into greater risk of stalled economic recovery and possibly even return to recession
  • A volunteer in Brazil's AstraZeneca vaccine trial has died: Reuters via BBG
US Dollar Digestion: EUR/USD, GBP/USD Price Action Setups

US Dollar Digestion: EUR/USD, GBP/USD Price Action Setups

2020-10-08 17:05:00
James Stanley, Strategist
Share:

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD Talking Points:

  • Despite a bullish run in equities this week and some very provocative headlines and themes – the US Dollar has been fairly quiet, all factors considered.
  • While EUR/USD bearish scenarios previously looked attractive for USD-strength themes, there may be a shift in the opposite direction as the pair grasps on to support to continue a series of higher-highs and lows.
  • The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about price action or chart patterns, check out our DailyFX Education section.
Advertisement

One might’ve figured, given all of the headlines over the weekend, that some volatility may be on the horizon across global markets. But, for most intents and purposes, this week has been downright quiet in the FX-space; as the US Dollar has trickled into a trend of digestion and this can be extrapolated across a number of major currency pairs.

In USD, the question of direction remains. The bigger-picture backdrop continues to carry a bearish quality, as the short-side move off of the March highs was loud and visible for about five months; until running into a huge area of support on the chart on September 1st. After that support came into play, so did a directional change as the USD chugged higher for much of September, giving rise to the potential of an elongated bullish trend. September price action closed as a bullish engulfing bar on the monthly chart, and this is the type of formation that’ll often be approached with the aim of bullish continuation.

US Dollar Monthly Price Chart

US Dollar Monthly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

On a shorter-term basis, there’s an item of support in the US Dollar that remains in-play. This was looked at earlier this week during the Tuesday webinar; and this can keep the door open for short-term bullish scenarios for the currency.

Starts in:
Live now:
Nov 03
( 18:11 GMT )
James Stanley's Tuesday Webinar
Trading Price Action
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

A little lower in this article, I take a look at GBP/USD, which may be set up attractively for scenarios of USD-strength. And on the other side, EUR/USD may hold some attraction for those looking at situations of USD-weakness.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

US Dollar Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

EUR/USD Settles at Support

Going back to August, EUR/USD was one of my favored ways of looking for USD-strength, largely based on the prospect of resistance holding around the 1.2000 big figure. That level showed up on September 1st and the pair then went into a fairly aggressive sell-off last month.

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by James Stanley
Building Confidence in Trading
Get My Guide

But, of late, that bearish price action has been receding and the weakness that’s shown in the USD has certainly filtered into EUR/USD. At this point, EUR/USD appears to be attempting to set support at another higher-low. This comes in around a key spot on the chart, an area that was previously used to set-up resistance for short-side plays in September. But, with a current show of potential support around that area of prior resistance, coupled with higher-lows and recent higher-highs, that paradigm may be shifting.

Current support shows from 1.1736-1.1750. The latter of those prices is the 38.2% retracement of the 2014-2017 major move and the former is a major psychological level.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

EURUSD Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EUR/USD on Tradingview

GBP/USD: Another Rejection at 1.3000

On the other side of the matter, I had previously followed GBP/USD for themes of USD-weakness, looking for another re-test of the 1.3000 psychological level which could, possibly, keep the door open to topside breakouts.

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by James Stanley
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

That 1.3000 level came into play on Monday. But similar to mid-September, bulls couldn’t do much thereafter. Prices pulled back on Tuesday and have been climbing higher over the past couple of days; but the question remains as to whether buyers will ultimately be able to break back-above the 1.3000 psychological level. After a bout of a month of range-bound price action, that window for bullish breakouts may be closing and this can keep the door open for short-side scenarios in the pair – looking for themes of USD-strength to push GBP/USD back down towards support in the 1.2785-1.2815 area on the chart.

Below that, secondary support potential exists around the 1.2712 Fibonacci level.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

GBPUSD Four Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBP/USD on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES