News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Wall Street IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Wall Street for the first time since Mar 05, 2021 when Wall Street traded near 31,529.20. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Wall Street weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/zeXYkoKVW6
  • Nasdaq extends its selloff as tech stocks slide further due to surging bond yields. Get your #Nasdaq market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/eEeeFpFYiF https://t.co/AFfRIHZMgr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.05%, while traders in GBP/USD are at opposite extremes with 67.50%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dhdLOMU0TX
  • Nasdaq Extends Slide, Bond Yields Spike on Fed Taper Fears -via @DailyFX Link to Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/05/12/nasdaq-extends-slide-bond-yields-spike-on-fed-taper-fears.html #StockMarket $NDX $QQQ https://t.co/e08fA8Wy73
  • US Treasury Department: - U.S. ran record $1.9 trillion budget deficit in first 7 months of FY2021 - Federal outlays climbed 22% to $4.1 trillion from Oct. through April - Revenues rose 16%, reflecting 2020 tax deferrals
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.28% Germany 30: -0.28% France 40: -0.34% Wall Street: -1.41% US 500: -1.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/PfhSpL5XsO
  • 🇺🇸 Monthly Budget Statement (APR) Actual: $-226B Expected: $-220B Previous: $-660B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • We've taken out short-term support on $SPX. Bigger levels below though. For this index, it is 4,000. For the Nasdaq 100, which has a floor more immediately at hand, it is 13,000 https://t.co/KeHxTw81Ht
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Monthly Budget Statement (APR) due at 18:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $-220B Previous: $-660B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • US Dollar Rip, Dip, Rip Around CPI: EUR/USD, USD/CAD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2021/05/12/usd-rip-dip-rip-around-cpi-eurusd-eur-usd-usd-cad-usdcad.html
Top 5 Events: Q1'19 China GDP & USDCNH Price Forecast

Top 5 Events: Q1'19 China GDP & USDCNH Price Forecast

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- The Q1’19 China GDP report is due on Wednesday, April 17 at 02:00 GMT.

- The US-China trade war will be blamed for the continued slowdown in the Chinese economy, even as the government guides growth to its weakest rate since 1990.

- Retail tradersare starting to fade gains by AUDJPY and NZDJPY, suggesting that China-linked currency crosses may continue to gain ground in the week ahead.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/17 WEDNESDAY | 02:00 GMT | CNY China Gross Domestic Product (1Q)

According to a Bloomberg News survey, the Chinese economy is due to have grown by 6.3% annualized in the first quarter, a slight decline from the 6.4% annualized rate in Q4’18. The Chinese economy, according to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, is set to grow at a pace of 6% to 6.5% in 2019, a slower than the 6.5% growth target in 2018. As the Chinese government ‘guides’ growth rates lower as the economy matures, one can’t dismiss the fact that growth readings are the lowest in three decades.

It's also important to view the data through the lens of the US-China trade war. The Chinese economy is managed by the central government, and therefore, the targeted rates of decelerated growth are, in a sense, intentional. Unintentional negative consequences on growth can be ‘explained away’ by the US-China trade war tensions. At least that will be the view portrayed by Chinese government officials. Traders may find that FX markets prove more reactive around US-China trade war news than around the Q1’19 Chinese GDP report.

Pairs to Watch: AUDJPY, Gold, USDCNH

USDCNH Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (June 2018 to April 2019)

usdcnh price forecast, us-china trade war, us-china trade war talks

USDCNH has been a dull currency pair over the past several months. The Chinese government has exerted more control over Yuan settlement rates as the US-China trade war has raged, in effect, allowing the Chinese Yuan to weaken to offset the negative impacts of the dispute (read our notes from July 2018, US-China Trade War Enters New Phase amid Yuan Depreciation and August 2018, USDCNH Appreciation Not a Problem for China, Reserves Figures Show.)

That USDCNH depreciated steadily from November 2018 through February 2019 was a sign that the trade talks were nearing resolution suggests that traders may be wise to take the last six-weeks of sideways price action as an indication that not much progress has been made.

Traders may find that the area around 6.7368 is seen as a “turning point” for sentiment: if USDCNH is above this level, then the US-China trade war talks are worsening; if USDCNH stays below and moves further below this level, then the US-China trade war talks are moving towards resolution.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES