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Talking Points:
- NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- New Zealand Dollar jumps to highest in nearly two months vs. US namesake
- Looking for upswing to fizzle to enter short in line with long-term down trend
The New Zealand Dollar is attempting to renew upside momentum against its US namesake as prices broke upward to the highest level in nearly two months. The currency mounted a swift advance following an unexpectedly strong set of trade figures.
Near-term resistance is at 0.6746, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 0.6794. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 0.6699 paves the way for a challenge of rising trend line support set from late January, now at 0.6631.
We expect continuation of the dominant NZD/USD down trend, in line with our 2016 fundamental forecast. This paints the recent upswing as corrective, but an actionable short trade setup is absent at this point. With that in mind, we will remain flat for the time being.
Losing money trading NZD/USD? This might be why.
