Talking Points:
- GBP/USD Bullish Momentum Takes Shape Ahead of U.K. Retail Sales.
- Gold Downside Targets in Focus Amid Ongoing Series of Lower-Highs.
- USDOLLAR Holds Tight Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes; Forward-Guidance in Focus.
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Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- GBP/USD climbs to a fresh monthly high 1.5454 amid the positive developments coming out of the U.K. economy while Bank of England (BoE) retains hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy.
- Faster job/wage growth paired with lower energy prices may prop up U.K. Retail Sales, which is projected to contract 0.3% in January.
- DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since February 12, with the ratio currently holding at +1.22.
XAU/USD
- Gold looks poised for a further decline as it continues to carve a series of lower highs & lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) carves a bearish trend.
- Market players appear to be treating gold more as a commodity rather than a currency as it largely moves in tandem with Silver prices..
- Next key downside objective comes in around $1179 (100% expansion) to $1182 (61.8% expansion).
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Read More:
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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
| Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 11800.84 | 11804.04 | 11779.21 | 0.09 | 41.16% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised for another close above 11,774 (50% expansion) despite the weaker-than-expected data prints; will continue to watch the monthly opening range.
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may heighten the appeal of the USDOLLAR should the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric boost speculation for a rate hike in mid-2015.
- Still waiting for a break/close out of the 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) range.
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| Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 13) | 12:00 | -- | -13.2% |
| Housing Starts (JAN) | 13:30 | 1070K | 1065K |
| Housing Starts (MoM) (JAN) | 13:30 | -1.7% | -2.0% |
| Building Permits (JAN) | 13:30 | 1067K | 1053K |
| Building Permits (MoM) (JAN) | 13:30 | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) | 13:30 | -0.4% | -0.8% |
| Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) | 13:30 | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Producer Price Index ex Food/Energy (MoM) (JAN) | 13:30 | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Producer Price Index ex Food/Energy (YoY) (JAN) | 13:30 | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Producer Price Index ex Food/Energy/Trade (MoM) (JAN) | 13:30 | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| Producer Price Index ex Food/Energy/Trade (YoY) (JAN) | 13:30 | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN) | 14:15 | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Capacity Utilization (JAN) | 14:15 | 79.9% | 79.4% |
| Manufacturing Production (SIC) (JAN) | 14:15 | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes | 19:00 | ||
| Net Long-Term TIC Flows (DEC) | 21:00 | -- | |
| Total Net TIC Flows (DEC) | 21:00 | -- |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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