News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Sri Lankan central bank standing lending rate unchanged at 5.5%, standing deposit rate unchanged at 4.5%- BBG
  • US macro data were largely mixed overnight, with the initial jobless claims showing further weakness while durable goods orders beat expectations. The weekly jobless claim report registered 778k for the week ending Nov 21, marking a fifth-week high (chart below).
  • Singapore's Straits Times Index might be vulnerable to a technical pullback after rising more than 19% in November. An immediate support level can be found at 2,800.
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Australian Dollar to Rise as Easing Border Restrictions Buoy Sentiment - $AUD $AUDJPY $AUDUSD
  • 🇰🇷 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 0.5% Expected: 0.5% Previous: 0.5%
  • Bank of Korea: 2020 GDP growth seen at -1.1% versus -1.3% projected in August, 2021 GDP growth seen at 3.0% versus 2.8% anticipated prior -BBG
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 Interest Rate Decision due at 01:00 GMT (15min) Actual: 0.5% Expected: 0.5% Previous: 0.5%
  • 7 out of 11 Dow Jones sectors ended lower, with about 63.3% of the index’s constituents closing in the red. Energy (-3.64%) , materials (-2.25%) and communication services (-1.24%) were among the worst performers on Wednesday.
  • Australian Private Capital Expenditure -3.0% in Q3 vs -1.5% expected and from -6.4% in Q2 (revised worse from -5.9%), $AUDUSD little changed so far -BBG
EURUSD Options-Derived Daily Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes

EURUSD Options-Derived Daily Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes

2017-08-16 11:22:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • EURUSD one-day implied volatility pricing in one-standard deviation high/low of 11765/11643
  • FOMC minutes to be released at 18:00 GMT could generate volatility, but not expected to be big; room for surprise
  • Confluence of options-derived and price levels outlined

Looking for a longer-term view on EURUSD? Check out our Q3 Forecast.

In the following table are implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs for the next one-day and one-week time periods. Using levels of IV we calculated the projected range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. (Statistically, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds.)

EURUSD Options-Derived Daily Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes

EURUSD one-day implied volatility ‘normal’, pointing to a one-standard deviation high/low of 11765/11643

EURUSD one-day implied volatility is currently at 10.01%, while one-week is at 7.40%. This implies a one-standard deviation range from current spot price of 11765/11643 and 11824/11584, respectively. Later today, at 18:00 GMT we have the release of the July FOMC minutes, and looking at short-term implied volatility there isn’t an expectation for a huge move to ensue upon the release. But as we have seen before, the market can have it wrong and larger than expected price swings can unfold as a result.

The one-day projected high of 11765 lies just above today’s current intra-day high of 11758 and the projected low arriving at 11643 is near the lower parallel of a developing channel (possible bull-flag). Given the generally negative short-term trend in the euro the bias is still for it to work off overbought conditions generated by the move from the middle of June to earlier this month. With that in mind, any pop higher may find itself with limited momentum. A move lower on the other hand could find support at the near confluence of the 2016 high of 11616, projected range-low of 11643.

Looking out over the next week, the projected low is of interest given it aligns relatively well with the April trend-line (and possibly the 2016 high), and should we see a drop there in the next few days buyers may step up and keep the euro supported at that juncture. A break higher would be come on a breach of the top-side trend-line and we could find one-week IV underpriced as the euro attempts to break above the monthly high at 11910.

For other currency volatility-related articles please visit the Binaries page.


EURUSD Options-Derived Daily Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes

See the Webinar Calendar for a schedule of upcoming live events with DailyFX analysts.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.