News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Breaking news

Federal Reserve Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Maintains Monthly Asset Purchases

Real Time News
  • RT @LeaderMcConnell: Based on a commitment from Leader Schumer to Senators Portman and Sinema that the Portman-Sinema amendment to be filed…
  • The price of oil defends the advance from the monthly low ($65.01) amid a larger-than-expected decline in US inventories. Get your #crudeoil market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • RT @burgessev: Barring something really surprising, Senate will move forward on bipartisan infrastructure deal shortly. Capito says: "I pla…
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.65% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.49% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.00% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via
  • GBP/USD pushes higher as UK COVID cases fall, Fed remains highly accommodative $GBPUSD
  • GBP/USD has been lifted by signs that coronavirus cases in the UK are dropping and by suggestions that office attendance is rising.Get your $GBPUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.20% Gold: 0.49% Oil - US Crude: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.75%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 69.77%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • $USD now at two week lows, cutting into secondary support zone 92.19-92.26 $DXY
  • Infrastructure week, for real this time
Further EURUSD Losses Likely to be Limited as Political Concerns Fade

Further EURUSD Losses Likely to be Limited as Political Concerns Fade

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

EURUSD analysis and talking points:

- EURUSD has been hit hard by political turmoil in Italy and Spain, as well as possible US tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

- However, after the initial adjustment lower, a period of relative stability is likely as markets tend to settle after an initial strong move downwards.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment data to help you trade profitably.

And for a longer-term outlook take a look at our Q2 forecast for EUR.

Euro set to stabilize after bounce from 10-month low

EURUSD has been hit hard over the past six weeks, falling to a 10-month low on a strong US Dollar, political upheaval in Italy and Spain, and the threat of US tariffs on EU steel and aluminum. However, the rally that began on Wednesday suggests that a period of relative stability is on the way given that markets tend to settle down once an initial shock has been priced in – as these latest concerns seem to have been.

EURUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (Year to Date)

Latest EURUSD price chart.

Chart by IG

The list of concerns for EURUSD is a long one: the US economy is healthier than the EU’s, putting upward pressure on US interest rates that are already higher than in the EU; Italy could yet face a snap election bringing Eurosceptics into power; Spain’s prime minister is facing a no-confidence vote in Congress; and Washington is set to announce plans to impose tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports.

However, EURUSD has already rallied from the lows and arguably the bad news has now been priced in to the Euro, stocks and bonds, suggesting at least a temporary respite. News of higher-than-expected inflation in the Euro-Zone in May should also support the Euro, making it easier for the European Central Bank to end its monetary stimulus program.

Technically, EURUSD is facing chart resistance that could impede a stronger rally but retail investor sentiment data point to further gains, together making a period of sideways trading the most likely outcome, at least for a while.

The retail trader data show 52.5% of traders are net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.1 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since April 30, when EURUSD traded near 1.2129; the price has moved 3.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 16.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 20.2% higher than yesterday and 18.6% higher from last week.

At DailyFX, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD may resume its fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURUSD price trend may soon rallyfurther despite the fact traders remain net-long.

EURUSD retail trader positioning.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: analytical and educational webinars hosted several times per day, trading guides to help you improve your trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. You can learn how to trade like an expert by reading our guide to the Traits of Successful Traders.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.