News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 outlook appears bleak in the near term as retail traders increase their upside exposure. At the same time, these indices confirmed bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fKCHELbOxo https://t.co/eVDwmFTaIg
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/8B8hqHahm1
  • The US Dollar finished off an eventful week after CPI and retail sales injected volatility into markets. FOMC is now in the Greenback’s sights as taper talks linger. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/MHi0lfQ93j https://t.co/4XetwYAaNd
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/ZZRLV0Wkea
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed a bearish Gartley pattern, which hints at further downside potential. Negative MACD divergence on the weekly chart suggests that upward momentum may be fading. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/GkMEkVA7YR https://t.co/E1vyCMVt6K
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1G4lMu https://t.co/2TpkkUu7Hg
  • Tesla boss Elon Musk is seemingly running the cryptocurrency market single-handed this week with his tweets prompting a massive sell-off before today’s sharp rally. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/qGci02osOP https://t.co/Yp24Sakrfl
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/LDP3HlN4A3
  • GBP/USD on the front foot to close the week. Bulls aim for YTD peak, while EUR/GBP range is maintained. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/neGBchlJ0O https://t.co/KME51FSF0D
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCrRwD https://t.co/7w5jodyzj0
Euro-Zone Investor Confidence Tops Expectations, All Eyes on ECB

Euro-Zone Investor Confidence Tops Expectations, All Eyes on ECB

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Talking Points

- The Sentix index of Euro-Zone investor confidence hit 28.4 in June, above both May’s 27.4 and the expected 27.4.

- Euro-Zone retail sales were in line with forecasts in April month/month but higher than predicted year/year.

- Traders in the Euro should now be on the lookout for any hints of monetary policy changes at Thursday’s news conference by ECB President Mario Draghi.

- Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Investor confidence in the Euro-Zone was higher than expected in June, according to the latest Sentix index. It rose to 28.4 from 27.4 in May, beating expectations of an unchanged figure and adding to evidence that the Euro-Zone economy is currently growing healthily. The index is now at its highest for almost 10 years.

However, that is not expected to lead to tighter monetary policy in the Euro-Zone near-term as attention turns to Thursday’s news conference by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, which will likely determine the near-term direction of the Euro.

No immediate policy changes are likely but the markets are expecting Draghi to be modestly hawkish due to the continuing buoyancy of the Euro-Zone economy, and particularly of Germany and France, its two largest members.

The composite purchasing managers’ index for the Euro-Zone economy in May matched April’s six-year high and its compiler, IHS Markit, said Monday that is consistent with economic growth of 0.7% in the second quarter of the year.

Despite this positive background, Draghi is expected to make only minor changes to his opening statement at Thursday’s press conference and is not expected to signal an early “tapering” of its asset-purchase program to keep monetary conditions loose.

However, investors should watch out for any changes in his opening statement about the balance of risks to the economy, and also to the ECB’s forward guidance. In particular, it could drop any reference to the potential for further cuts in the deposit rate.

This would be broadly positive for the Euro but the risk is that he will less hawkish than the markets currently expect, sending it lower. The key levels to watch out for in EUR/USD are resistance at the recent highs just under 1.13 to the upside and support at the recent lows just above 1.11 to the downside.

Chart: EUR/USD Daily Timeframe (2017 to Date)

Euro-Zone Investor Confidence Tops Expectations, All Eyes on ECB

Chart by IG

Meanwhile, Euro-Zone retail sales in April grew by 0.1% month/month, in line with forecasts but grew by a higher-than-expected 2.5% year/year. Analysts were expecting growth of 2.1%, down from an upwardly revised March figure of 2.5%. The monthly rise was the fourth in succession.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides; they’re free and updated for the second quarter of 2017

If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, check out the IG Client Sentiment Data

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES