News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Have not made decision on removing bank restrictions -Some housing tightness is passing phenomenon -Large increases in home prices unlikely to be sustained -Corporate defaults have been fewer than expected -We haven't seen as much scarring as we feared
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Emergency lending facilities were very helpful to economy -Haven't talked with US Treasury about emergency tools
  • Federal Reserve holds its policy interest rate and pace of asset purchases steady as expected. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/8CIIMYDUtr https://t.co/0U48GH20aM
  • Fed Chair Powell: -World has been struggling with disinflationary forces for a while -US inflation dynamics won't change much over near term -More concerned about recovery than pickup in inflation -Inflation resembling past decades seems unlikely
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Talk of tapering asset purchases is premature -Just too early to be talking about dates on tapering bond buying plans -Tapering would be gradual when we do it -Whole focus on exit is premature $SPX $NDX $DJI $USD $DXY $XAUUSD $TNX
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Pandemic, new virus strains still provide considerable downside risks -Will take quite a while to get to herd immunity -Vaccine rollout likely to be a struggle -Nothing more important to economy now than vaccinations
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Coming months' rise in inflation will be transient -We will be patient and not react when we see modest bumps in inflation -Very unlikely that we'll see troubling inflation -Not going to adopt a formula on inflation
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Financial vulnerabilities are 'moderate' right now overall -Asset prices have recently been driven by vaccines, fiscal steps -Link between interest rates and asset prices not so strong
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Fiscal response to economic downturn has been strong and sustained -We are a long way away from 'returning to normal' with about 9 million Americans still unemployed -The real unemployment rate is closer to 10% -Very appropriate to be highly accommodative
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Declines to comment when asked about recent $GME stock price activity, notes financial conditions are monitored very broadly -Carefully examining aspects of non-bank sector #Stocks #StockMarket #FOMC
USD/JPY Strength Dwindles, RSI Pulls Back Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision

USD/JPY Strength Dwindles, RSI Pulls Back Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision

David Song, Strategist

FX TALKING POINTS:

-USD/JPY Strength Dwindles Ahead of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Rate Decision. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Pulls Back from Overbought Territory.

- EUR/USD Remains Under Pressure as European Central Bank (ECB) Buys More Time. Outlook Mired by Bearish Sequence.

DailyFX Table

USD/JPY STRENGTH DWINDLES AHEAD OF BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) RATE DECISION. RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) PULLS BACK FROM OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY.

USDJPY Table

The recent advance in USD/JPY appears to be losing steam as the pair fails to extend the higher highs from earlier this week, and fresh comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may alter the near-term outlook for the dollar-yen exchange rate should the central bank show a greater willingness to move away from its easing-cycle.

Even though the BoJ is widely expected to retain the Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control in April, the central bank may start to change its tune as officials hold internal discussions on a potential exit strategy. In turn, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may prepare Japanese households and businesses for a less accommodative stance, and a material change in the policy statement may fuel a larger pullback in USD/JPY as the central bank still anticipates inflation to hit the 2% target ‘around fiscal 2019.’

In contrast, more of the same from the BoJ may keep USD/JPY afloat as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months, and the dollar-yen may stay bid ahead of the Fed interest rate decision on May 2 as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. as ‘expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate.’

USD/JPY DAILY CHART

USDJPY Daily Chart
  • The near-term advance in USD/JPY appears to be stalling around the 109.40 (50% retracement) to 110.00 (78.6% expansion) area as it struggles to extend the bullish sequence from earlier this week, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back from overbought territory.
  • Keep in mind, topside targets remain on the radar for USD/JPY as both price and the RSI retain the upward trends carried over from the previous month, with a break/close above the stated region raising the risk for a move towards 111.10 (61.8% expansion) to 111.60 (38.2% retracement).
  • Need a break/close back below the 108.30 (61.8% retracement) to 108.40 (100% expansion) region to open up the downside targets, with the first area of interest coming in around 106.70 (38.2% expansion) to 107.20 (61.8% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q2 Forecast for USD/JPY

EUR/USD REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE AS EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) FAILS TO DELIVER EXIT STRATEGY. OUTLOOK MIRED BY BEARISH SEQUENCE.

EURUSD Table

EUR/USD remains under pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) sticks to the current script, with euro-dollar at risk of facing a further decline as the central bank appears to be in no rush to taper the quantitative easing (QE) program.

Recent remarks from the ECB suggests the Governing Council will retain the current policy throughout the first-half of 2018 as ‘measures of underlying inflation remain subdued and have yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend,’ and the wait-and-see approach keeps the near-term outlook for EUR/USD tilted to the downside as President Mario Draghi and Co. refrain from delivering a more detailed exit strategy.

With that said, attention now turns to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, which is projected to show a slowdown in the growth rate, but a pickup in the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, may fuel the recent weakness in EUR/USD as it encourages the FOMC to deliver four rate-hikes in 2018.

EUR/USD DAILY CHART

EURUSD Daily Chart
  • EUR/USD stands at risk for a further decline as it clears the March-low (1.2155), with a close below 1.2130 (50% retracement) opening up the next area of interest around 1.1960 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1970 (23.% expansion).
  • Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it approaches oversold territory, with move below 30 raising the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as the bearish momentum gathers pace.
  • Next downside hurdle comes in around 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1670 (78.6% expansion) to 1.1680 (50% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q2 Forecast for EUR/USD

Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

DailyFX Calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES