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Yen to Rise as US Dollar Falls if Payrolls Data Disappoints

Yen to Rise as US Dollar Falls if Payrolls Data Disappoints

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Asian FX Finds Divergent Paths in Conflicting Indications of Risk Appetite
  • Japanese Yen to Rise, US Dollar to Decline if Payrolls Data Underperforms
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Currency markets diverged in overnight trade. The sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars traded alongside Asian stock exchanges, where shares followed Wall Street upward. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.8 percent. Meanwhile, the Yen opted to follow more forward-looking risk appetite cues emanating from S&P 500 futures. Contracts on the US stocks yardstick declined, seemingly fueling safety-linked demand for the Japanese unit.

Looking ahead, traders are likely to dismiss a European calendar peppered with second-tier releases to focus on December’s US Employmentreport. The data set is due to show the economy added 240,000 jobs last month, marking a slowdown from the 321,000 increase posted in November. Leading survey data reinforces the probability of a downturn, pointing to significant slowdown in hiring growth in the services sector (which accounts for close to 80 percent of US employment).

Furthermore, US economic news-flow has deteriorated relative to expectations over recent weeks, suggesting analysts are overestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may push back Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations, weighing on the US Dollar. It may likewise undermine risk appetite as traders fret that softening US performance will fall short of offsetting malaise in Europe and Asia, fueling further Yen gains.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (NOV)

10.0%

-

9.8%

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Construction Index (DEC)

44.4

-

45.4

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (DEC)

1260.5B

-

1269.1B

0:30

AUD

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

-3.3%

-3.1%

-2.7%

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

1.5%

1.5%

1.4%

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (NOV P)

108.9

-

109.9

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (NOV P)

103.8

-

104.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (DEC)

3.4%

3.2%

Low

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (DEC)

3.1%

3.1%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.3%

0.2%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

-0.6%

0.8%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (NOV)

20.5B

22.1B

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (NOV)

23.0B

23.1B

Low

7:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

-1.5%

-0.5%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

0.5%

-3.1%

Low

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

-0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

-0.4%

0.0%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (DEC)

-0.1%

0.1%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (DEC)

-0.3%

-0.3%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£) (NOV)

-3475M

-3582M

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£) (NOV)

-2000M

-2024M

Low

9:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£) (NOV)

-9500M

-9620M

Low

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

1.6%

1.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.3%

-0.7%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (NOV)

2.3%

1.7%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (NOV)

6.7%

0.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

1.2%

-2.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1610

1.1704

1.1749

1.1805

1.1798

1.1843

1.1892

GBPUSD

1.4915

1.4998

1.5044

1.5093

1.5081

1.5127

1.5164

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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