News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/5KaUvfGM4I
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/9Bjkh5413e
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/FqAsp91Gia
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cKOUmtj7Dj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/cDcjl3Ue09
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/KWOX5wSipe
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/cwSWCpKtaj
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/zu5hMovbz6
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/QMKyTBOKNG
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rises as Post-CPI Bond Yield Drop Drags US Dollar

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rises as Post-CPI Bond Yield Drop Drags US Dollar

Thomas Westwater, Analyst

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, US CPI, ECB, Volatility -Talking Points

  • S&P 500 sees a new record-high close following a better-than-expected CPI print
  • Asia-Pacific markets likely to see upbeat trading given lack of market volatility
  • AUD/USD climbs above trendline resistance with a bullish SMA crossover in the works

Friday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Friday’s Asia-Pacific session looks on track for a higher open following an upbeat Wall Street trading session. Inflation in the United States rose above analysts’ expectations for May. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) crossed the wires at 0.6% , the highest print in more than ten years. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, CPI rose 5.0% versus an expected 4.7%. The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high.

However, markets have been hyper focused on central bank policy. That said, core inflation – a measure that strips out volatile items such as food and energy – crossed the wires at 3.8%, beating the forecasted 3.4% figure, according to the DailyFX Economic calendar. Treasury yields rose in the immediate aftermath, but rate traders moved back into government bonds, pushing the 10-year yield to the lowest mark since early March.

That said, earlier this week, Australia’s consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.4% from 3.5% the prior month. The data represents a broader theme across markets as consumers face rising prices, driven by rising prices at the factory gate. Major building materials, including copper, iron ore, and lumber, have all seen significant gains through the pandemic. The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar climbed overnight after the sharp turnaround in Treasury yields dragged the US Dollar.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) released its June policy decision last night, with the European central bank publishing a new round of Staff Economic Projections. However, EUR/USD was largely unfazed on the news. The lack of reaction to the ECB meeting and the US inflation figures is surprising, but traders may feel comfortable with the amount of risk exposure at current levels. It may also be that markets are now more confident in the Fed’s transitory outlook on inflationary pressures in the economy.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook:

AUD/USD rose above its 38.2% Fibonacci level overnight, jumping from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Price appears to have made a decisive break above trendline resistance, an area that has been pressuring the currency pair through this week. A bullish crossover above the 20-day SMA from the rising 50-day SMA appears to be on the cards in the coming days. Moreover, MACD looks to be gearing up to move above its signal line, a bullish sign.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

audusd

Chart created with TradingView

Australian Dollar TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES