Talking Points:
• After nine months of persistent advance, the Dollar may be susceptible to reversal; but it seems not yet
• Despite the sharp drop from the Greenback on Friday after the NFPs miss, the currency bounced Monday
• In comparison to mature Dollar and SPX trends, more pressing risk arises for the Euro and Aussie Dollar
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Once again, pushed to the brink, the Dollar manages to regain its footing rather than suffer a critical trend shift. Following the sharp miss in NFPs this past Friday, the Dollar was driven back to its multi-month channel support that translated into key figures across most of the majors (1.1000 for EURUSD, 1.5000 for GBPUSD, et). With the return of liquidity after the holiday slump, we would have a the market's decision. Yet, despite the further deferred rate forecast following the labor report, the market wasn't ready to make the critical break. This doesn't ensure a return to 11-year highs for USDollar, but it does offer bulls some breathing room. Now, heading forward, we have to keep tabs on both the Dollar's and general 'risk' trends' bearings. Meanwhile, more tangible event risk - and perhaps decisive trading opportunity - is seen for the Australian Dollar and Euro. An RBA rate decision and Greek financial countdown present currencies with pent up pressure and key levels. We discuss major trends and impending triggers in today's Trading Video.
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