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Sterling Latest: GBP/USD Prepares for Brexit and NFP Event Double

Sterling Latest: GBP/USD Prepares for Brexit and NFP Event Double

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Brexit Outlook and Sterling (GBP/USD) Price, Analysis and Chart:

  • Brexit trade talks hit a difficult patch.
  • US NFPs deserve short-term attention.
  • GBP/USD – bullish client sentiment.
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EU/UK post-Brexit trade talks have reportedly hit a difficult patch and with only days to go before a decision needs to be made, the chances of a deal are diminishing. According to a wide range of media reports, the EU last night asked for a further series of concessions from the UK, while the French European Affairs minister Clement Beaune said that France would veto any deal if they did not like it. Talks are ongoing but the mood has seemingly changed for the worse and time is running out with the European Council meeting on December 10-11 seen as the end date for discussions. As always with EU/UK trade discussions, one tweet or media report can change swiftly change the dynamic either way.

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Of more immediate concern for GBP/USD traders is the latest look at the US jobs market at 13:30 GMT today. The closely watched US non-farm payrolls are expected to show 469k jobs added in the US, compared to 638k in October, while the unemployment rate is seen nudging lower to 6.8% from a prior month’s reading of 6.9%. Any miss would add additional downside pressure on an already weak US dollar. The US dollar basket (DXY) – an index used to measure the value of the USD against a basket of six major currencies – hit a 32-month low of 90.44 yesterday, continuing its sell-off from its 103.96 peak made in late-March this year.

NFP and Forex: What is NFP and How to Trade it?

GBP/USD touched 1.3508 yesterday before pushing lower today. Cable remains overbought, using the CCI indicator, and very volatile and is probably best left alone until a final deal or no deal decision is made.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (March - December 4, 2020)

GBP/USD Bullish
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -14% 5% -6%
Weekly -32% 35% -10%
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IG client sentiment data show 35.40% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.83 to 1.Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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