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Yen Falls as Stocks Rise, Canadian Dollar Tracks Crude Oil Lower

Yen Falls as Stocks Rise, Canadian Dollar Tracks Crude Oil Lower

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, falling against all of its top counterparts. Swelling risk appetite appeared to be behind the selloff, with the anti-risk currency falling inversely of gains in S&P 500 futures and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar continued to push higher as comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard appeared to reinforce a cautiously hawkish tone from Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week. Bullard said global markets appear well-prepared for a possible US rate hike, suggesting fears of triggering a panic many not hold back the resumption of stimulus withdrawal.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars bore the brunt of the greenback’s advance as the threat of on-coming tightening exerted outsized pressure on currencies whose primary appeal is their yield-bearing properties. The Canadian Dollar declined alongside crude oil prices in a move that may reflect pre-positioning for this week’s OPEC meeting.

Looking ahead, German CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 0.1 percent. The report seems unlikely to generate a strong response from the Euro considering the outcome’s limited implications for near-term ECB policy trends as the central bank waits to evaluate the impact of a suite of stimulus measures unveiled earlier.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
23:50JPYRetail Trade (YoY) (APR)-0.8%-1.2%-1.0%
23:50JPYRetail Sales (MoM) (APR)0.0%-0.6%1.5%
23:50JPYDept. Store, Supermarket Sales (APR)-0.7%-1.2%-1.2%
00:35USDFed's Bullard Speaks in Seoul ---
01:00AUDHIA New Home Sales (MoM) (APR)-4.7%-8.9%
01:30AUDInventories SA (QoQ) (1Q)0.4%0.0%0.0%
01:30AUDCompany Operating Profit (QoQ) (1Q)-4.7%0.4%-3.6%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
06:00EURGerman Import Price Index (MoM) (APR)0.4%0.7%Low
06:00EURGerman Import Price Index (YoY) (APR)-6.2%-5.9%Low
06:45EURFrench GDP (QoQ) (1Q P)0.5%0.5%Medium
06:45EURFrench GDP (YoY) (1Q P)1.3%1.3%Medium
07:00CHFKOF Leading Indicator (MAY)102.7102.7Low
07:00CHFTotal Sight Deposits (MAY 27)-493.6bLow
07:00CHFDomestic Sight Deposits (MAY 27)-420.2bLow
09:00EUREurozone Economic Confidence (MAY)104.4103.9Low
09:00EUREurozone Business Climate Indicator (MAY)0.170.13Low
09:00EUREurozone Industrial Confidence (MAY)-3.5-3.7Low
09:00EUREurozone Services Confidence (MAY)11.311.5Low
09:00EUREurozone Consumer Confidence (MAY F)-7-7Low
12:00EURGerman CPI (MoM) (MAY P)0.3%-0.4%Medium
12:00EURGerman CPI (YoY) (MAY P)0.1%-0.1%Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EUR/USD1.09621.10521.10841.11421.11741.12321.1322
GBP/USD1.44711.45551.45891.46391.46731.47231.4807

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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