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Crude Oil Prices May Fall in Pre-Positioning for OPEC Meeting

Crude Oil Prices May Fall in Pre-Positioning for OPEC Meeting

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil chart setup continues to warn of topping near $50/bbl figure
  • Gold prices fall for 8th day as Yellen comments boost rate hike outlook
  • Quiet holiday trade may see pre-positioning for on-coming event risk

Gold prices remain under pressure having declined for an eighth consecutive session following comments from Fed Chair Yellen supporting the case for an interest rate hike in the near term (as expected). Crude oil prices proved resilient despite de-facto downside pressure courtesy of a rising US Dollar as risk appetite firmed, offering support to the sentiment-linked WTI contract.

Looking ahead, market closures in the US and the UK in observance of Memorial Day and the Late May Bank Holiday respectively may make for quiet near-term conditions. A degree of pre-positioning for the week’s event risk may have room to play out however.

For oil, this may amount to a pullback amid bets that OPEC will be unable to secure agreement on a production freeze at a meeting this week. For gold, this may amount to gains as traders digest the longest losing streak in nearly seven months ahead of pivotal event risk guiding US policy bets, including: the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge and Beige Book regional economic survey, the ISM suite of activity metrics and official labor-market data.

FXCM traders are net long gold. Find out here what this hints about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are testing below support at 1205.30, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Confirmation of a break on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% levelat 1174.93. Alternatively, a recovery above rising channel floor support-turned-resistance at 1230.80 sees the next upside barrier at 1242.88, the 23.6% retracement.

Crude Oil Prices May Fall in Pre-Positioning for OPEC Meeting

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISNegative RSI divergence continues to point to ebbing upside momentum and hint that crude oil prices may be topping after testing the $50/barrel figure. A daily close below the 50%Fibonacci expansionat 48.77 targets the 38.2%level at 47.41. Alternatively, a move above the 61.8% Fib at 50.13 exposes the 76.4%expansion at 51.82.

Crude Oil Prices May Fall in Pre-Positioning for OPEC Meeting

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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