Key Reversal Day Sets Ominous Tone for GBP/JPY

Talking Points

• GBP/JPY outside reversal day shifts focus lower
• Updated targets & invalidation levels
• Event Risk on Tap This Week

GBPJPY Daily

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

• GBPJPY outside-day reversal candle off slope resistance- bearish
• Interim support targets at 184.98 backed by slope support / 184.16
• Interim resistance 185.92 backed by 186.92 (bearish invalidation)
• Daily RSI turning ahead of 60, pending support-trigger break – bearish
• Key Event Risk Ahead: UK Industrial / Manufacturing Production & Trade Balance and US Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.

GBPJPY 30min

Notes: GBPJPY reversed off slope resistance on the back of today’s BoE interest rate decision with the decline looking to mark an outside-day reversal candle. Near-term confluence support coming up at the 185-handle and could offer a brief reprieve. Interim resistance stands at 185.54 backed by 185.92-186 with our bearish invalidation level set at the September high-day close at 186.95.

Bottom line: looking lower / selling rallies while below 187 with a break if the ascending parallel structure needed to validate a more significant reversal for the pair targeting 184.16 & 186.33. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 35-38 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into tomorrow’s data prints out of the UK & US with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in sterling & risk sensitive pairs.

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Relevant Data Releases Next Week

Other Setups in Play:

• GBP/USD Breakdown Potential on BoE, NFP- Levels to Know
• NZD/USD Shorts at Risk Ahead of Jobs Data- 6640 Key Support
• Webinar: Big Data Week to Threaten USD- RBA, BoE, NFP Setups in Focus
• AUD/JPY Shorts Primed for BoJ, RBA
• EUR/JPY in Free Fall Ahead of BoJ- Bearish Sub 134

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or ClickHere to be added to his email distribution list

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