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AUD/JPY Shorts Primed for BoJ, RBA

AUD/JPY Shorts Primed for BoJ, RBA

Michael Boutros,

Talking Points


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDJPY trading within descending median-line formation- bearish
  • Interim support 85.46/50 backed by subsequent objectives at 84.72 & 83.84
  • Resistance 86.13/27 – bearish invalidation stands with the upper median-line parallel ~ 8700
  • Daily RSI turn ahead of 60 / pending support trigger- break below would be bearish
  • Key Event Risk Ahead: Japan Jobless Rate, CPI & BoJ tonight followed by RBA Interest Rate Decision on Monday night

AUDJPY 30min

Notes: AUDJPY is trading within the confines of a well-defined descending pitchfork off the October highs with the decline now coming into support at the 100% extension at 85.47/50. The immediate focus is lower while below the median line / 86.04/13 with a break of the lows targeting the 50% retracement at 85.22 backed by confluence support into the August 24th low-day close at 84.72/80.

A breach above interim resistance shifts the focus back towards targets into the upper median-line parallel ~87.00/09 (broader bearish invalidation). Note that the pair is marking bullish divergence into the lows which leaves us at risk for a near-term rally. Bottom line: looking for a resolution to the 85.50-86.00 range heading into key Japanese data tonight with our broader outlook favoring short-scalps while within this formation.

A quarter of the daily average true range yields profit targets of 26-30pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into the close of the week / month with Japan employment & CPI data on tap alongside the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision tonight. Event risk carries over into the open of next week with the RBA interest rate decision on Monday night – market participants are pricing in a 50% chance that the central bank will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and is likely to fuel added volatility in the Aussie crosses.

For updates on this scalp and more setups throughout the week subscribe to SB Trade Desk

Relevant Data Releases Next Week

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.