Daily Observations: EUR-crosses Basing; Looking for Weaker AUD, JPY

In recent weeks, we've maintained our focus on four pairs in particular: long GBPCAD (5/13); long GBPNZD (5/13); long USDCAD (5/29); and long USDJPY (5/29). Since initiation of coverage of these pairs, there have been varying degrees of success in terms of the magnitude of moves: GBPCAD was first discussed when trading at C$1.8790, today it trades at C$1.8981; GBPNZD was first discussed when trading at N$2.1030, today it trades at N$2.1520; USDCAD was first discussed when trading at C$1.2437, today it trades at C$1.2427; and USDJPY was first discussed when trading at ¥124.05, today it trades at ¥125.08. You can read the May 13 analyst pick here and the May 29 analyst pick here.

As these markets continue to develop - I'm a longer-term trader and like to give ideas some breathing room to unfold, before declaring them successes or failures - my attention in the short-term is more focused on an old friend (USDJPY) and a newcomer (EURAUD).

USDJPY's ride along its daily 8-EMA continues, and it's possible before we see one last thrust in the pair up towards ¥126.30, the 161.8% extension of the triangle that saw a breakout on May 19. EURAUD may pull back to its symmetrical triangle breakout, but in context of the falling wedge dating back to December, price may be just getting started on a trip towards A$1.5300 over the coming weeks.

EURAUD H4 Chart - October 2014 to Present

In general, AUD-crosses and JPY-crosses look weaker in general, with EURAUD, EURJPY, AUDUSD, and USDJPY all looking to favor the EUR- or USD-sides of those pairs in the short-term.

Read more: June Forex Seasonality Sees USD Easing Off after Stronger May

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