US Dollar Forecast Remains Firmly Bearish versus Japanese Yen

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USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 73.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.83 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jan 09 when USDJPY traded near 116.304; price has moved 4.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.7% higher than yesterday and 4.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.8% lower than yesterday and 22.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.