NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Three-Week Uptrend Broken

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Talking Points:

• NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.7430
• Kiwi Dollar breaks three-week support on soft economic data
• Sellers looking poised to challenge three-month rising trend

The New Zealand Dollar broke support guiding the move higher against its US counterpart since mid-July, with sellers now threatening the longer-term trend from May lows. The drop followed disappointing jobs data, followed by similarly disappointing housing market statistics.

Near-term support is at 0.7384, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing rising trend line support at 0.7355 and the 38.2% level at 0.7276. Alternatively, a move back above the 14.6% Fib at 0.7450 opens the door for a retest of the July 27 high at 0.7558.

Technical positioning and risk/reward parameters appeared acceptable to take an NZD/USD short position and the trade was activated at 0.7430, initially targeting 0.7384. A stop-loss will be triggered on a daily close above 0.7459. Half of exposure will be booked and stop moved to breakeven at the first objective.

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