NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Struggling at Key Trend Line

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Talking Points:

• NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• New Zealand Dollar rallystruggling at long-term trend line resistance
• Looking for actionable bearish reversal signal to trigger short position

The New Zealand Dollar continues to tread water below pivotal resistance defining the down trend against the currency’s US counterpart sinceearly July 2014. Directional resolution at this barrier may prove pivotal for trend development in the weeks and months ahead.

A daily close above the intersection of the trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.6717 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 0.6764. Alternatively, a drop below the 23.6% expansion at 0.6658 paves the way for a test of the 38.2% Fib retracement at 0.6596.

Our 2016 fundamental world view is partial to NZD/USD down trend continuation. Still, the absence of an actionable bearish reversal signal warns that entering a short position is premature for now. We will remain flat, waiting for a better-defined opportunity to present itself.

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