NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Trying to Renew Upside Push

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Talking Points:

• NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Prices Trying to Rekindle Upside Momentum After Finding Support Near 0.67 Figure
• Bearish Candlestick Pattern Still Technically Valid Despite Lackluster Follow-Through

The New Zealand Dollar is attempting to launch a recovery after finding support near the 0.67 figure against its US namesake. Downside follow-through after the formation of a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern has proved lacking, though the pattern remains technically valid absent a close above its swing high.

A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.6795 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% level at 0.6854. Alternatively, a reversal below the October 21 low at 0.6698 clears the way for a test of the 0.6613-44 area, marked by the 38.2% Fib retracement and a recently broken falling trend line (now recast as support).

Current positioning does not offer an attractive trading opportunity. On one hand, prices are too close to resistance to justify a long position from a risk/reward perspective. On the other, the absence of bearish follow-through suggests taking up the short side is at best premature. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines for the time being.

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