News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Australian Dollar Outlook: Tied to Biden Stimulus Bets, S&P 500, US Dollar, Treasuries $AUDUSD #SP500 #stimulusbill #USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/01/16/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-Tied-to-Biden-Stimulus-Bets-SP-500-US-Dollar-Treasuries.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/H7aus0Aljt
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy can enhance a trader's market analysis. Find out how more here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/7zI3p6UNVs
  • Bank of Japan to mull widening of its long-term yield band -BBG $USDJPY
  • While the rise in longer-dated Treasury yields have been impressive as of late, March highs remain a key focus for resistance The medium-term uptrend remains intact, maintained by rising support from August Fading fiscal stimulus expectations (size) may sour yields ahead https://t.co/L3vBcF0ts7
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/vFJ8zmphMm
  • While the US Dollar has been holding its ground, its downside bias against the Singapore Dollar, New Taiwan Dollar Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah remains intact as it hovers at support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/p7gAztWuVG https://t.co/zB1pOS6U4D
  • The $VIX is now running 227 trading days above the 20 handle. It is also working its way quickly into a dead-end descending triangle. These don't really break lower... https://t.co/39Pr7YrQ08
  • WTI Crude amongst the many market participants taking a hit today, down almost 3% $WTI $USD https://t.co/eg2phm1wUO
  • The power of suggestion: even though the market recognized the mistake with mixing Tesla founder Musk's suggestion to use the Signal app with the stock SIGL, it is still trading >2,000% above pre-remark levels and maintains heavy volume. Us speculators are an interesting people
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.35% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.65% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.75% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.95% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/6NZVebT00L
Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

2020-12-10 12:15:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Advertisement

December Forex Seasonality Overview:

  • December typically brings cheer for the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, while the US Dollar is left with coal.
  • DXY Index weakness, seasonally, can be attributed to its largest component, the Euro (57.6% of weighting), and the Canadian Dollar (9.1% of weighting).
  • December hasn’t brought the Santa Claus Rally for US stocks in recent years, but gold prices have tended to do quite well in the last month of trading.

Seasonal Trends Not in US Dollar's Favor

The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For December, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which fully capture trading during the era of quantitative easing and expanding government deficits since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis.

Monthly Forex Seasonality Summary – December 2020 (Chart 1)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness
Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Forex Seasonality in Euro (via EUR/USD) (Chart 2)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

December is a very bullish month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +1.21%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.54%.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Get Your Free EUR Forecast
Get My Guide

Forex Seasonality in British Pound (via GBP/USD) (Chart 3)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

December is a neutral month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fifth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.19%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fifth best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.06%.

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Get Your Free GBP Forecast
Get My Guide

Forex Seasonality in Japanese Yen (via USD/JPY) (Chart 4)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

December is a neutral month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the eighth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.85%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the sixth best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.07%.

JPY Forecast
JPY Forecast
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Get Your Free JPY Forecast
Get My Guide

Forex Seasonality in Australian Dollar (via AUD/USD) (Chart 5)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

December is a moderately bullish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.39%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the seventh best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.16%.

AUD Forecast
AUD Forecast
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Get Your Free AUD Forecast
Get My Guide

Forex Seasonality in New Zealand Dollar (via NZD/USD) (Chart 6)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

December is a very bullish month for NZD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +1.65%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the best month of the year, averaging a gain of +1.45%.

Forex Seasonality in Canadian Dollar (via USD/CAD) (Chart 7)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

December is a moderately bullish month for USD/CAD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the eighth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.29%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the seventh best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.07%.

Forex Seasonality in Swiss Franc (via USD/CHF) (Chart 8)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

December is a very bearish month for USD/CHF, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -1.67%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the second worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -1.22%.

Seasonality in US S&P 500 (Chart 9)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

December is a neutral month for the US S&P 500, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the worst month of the year for the index, averaging a loss of -1.05%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the ninth best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.48%.

Equities Forecast
Equities Forecast
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Get Your Free Equities Forecast
Get My Guide

Seasonality in Gold (via XAU/USD) (Chart 10)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - December 2020: End of Year Favors EUR, NZD Strength; USD Weakness

December is a very bullish month for gold (XAU/USD), from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year for the precious metal, averaging a gain of +1.67%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.45%.

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Get Your Free Gold Forecast
Get My Guide

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES