Gold Price Drop Stalls Just Shy of Breakout - Now What?

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

• Gold prices stall just shy of breaking critical support line
• Crude oil price chart continues to show signs of topping
• Bare economic calendar might boost headline sensitivity

Commodity prices corrected higher amid a broad-based retracement of Tuesday’s price action across benchmark asset classes. Gold prices edged up as the US Dollar retreated after setting a fresh four-month high, boosting the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. Meanwhile, crude oil prices followed the bellwether S&P 500 stock index upward.

BARE CALENDAR MAY BOOST HEADLINE SENSITIVITY

Looking ahead, a lull in top-tier scheduled event risk might make for a day of consolidation. Crude oil might see a bit of knee-jerk volatility as June WTI options expire. The absence of a clear catalyst might make for elevated sensitivity to stray headline risk however, so traders would be wise to proceed with caution.

See our quarterly gold price forecast to learn what will drive the trend through mid-year!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices continue to test the outer layer of support guiding them higher since December 2016, now at 1286.55. A daily close below that exposes the 1260.80-66.44 area. Alternatively, a push back above 1304.32 opens the door for a retest of support-turned-resistance in the 1323.60-33.42 zone.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern coupled with negative RSI divergence continue to hint that a top is in the works. A turn back below resistance-turned-support at 69.53 exposes the 66.22-67.36 area anew. Alternatively, a daily close above the May 10 high at 71.86 eyes wedge pattern resistance at 73.11.

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

• See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices
• Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
• Join a Trading Q&A webinar to answer your commodity market questions

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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