British Pound Weekly Outlook: Distressed GBP on the Backfoot Ahead of Next Week’s Key Data

POUND STERLING ANALYSIS TALKING POINTS

• U.S. NFP print keeps pound depressed.
• UK labor data and U.S. inflation direct the economic calendar next week.
• Long upper wick adds to GBP woes – weekly chart.

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BEARISH

The pound slipped on Friday after stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data retracing most of its weekly gains. This has added pressure on GBP considering the fragile state of UK fiscal policy measures. While the UK government attempts to stabilize bond markets after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax cut announcement, sterling continues its bearish trajectory. The UK housing market is another area of concern with declining prices likely to accelerate as interest rates rise resulting in lesser demand.

Next week puts the UK labor market under the spotlight which has shown a trend of both unemployment and employment decreasing month-on-month. Wage growth will be a key metric to monitor from the release while the U.S. economic calendar will focus on inflation. Headline inflation (including food and energy) is set to fall mostly due to a slump in crude oil prices (September) with core projected to match 2022 highs in March.

GBP/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

From a U.S. dollar perspective the ‘Fed pivot’ is unlikely after such stellar labor data so the fundamental setting currently favors the greenback.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GBP/USD WEEKLY CHART

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Weekly GBP/USD price action is producing a long upper wick candle (yellow) which is traditionally linked with subsequent downside – should the candle close in this fashion. This echoes the fundamental backdrop above and could bring the psychological 1.1000 into question soon.

GBP/USD DAILY CHART

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Dialing into the short-term daily chart, a confirmation close below 1.1000 may spark further selling towards the 1.0324 swing low. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has now dipped below the midpoint 50 level indicative of an increase in bearish momentum leaving little in the way of bullish support from a technical standpoint.

Key resistance levels:

• 100-day EMA (yellow)
• 1.1500/50-day EMA (blue)
• 20-day EMA (purple)

Key support levels:

• 1.1000
• 1.0324
• 1.0000

MIXED IG CLIENT SENTIMENT

IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently 57% LONG on GBP/USD (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment but due to recent changes in long and short positioning, we arrive at a short-term cautious bias.

Contact and followWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas