New Zealand Dollar Analysis: NZD/CHF, NZD/CAD, AUD/NZD

New Zealand Dollar Outlook, NZD/CHF, NZD/CAD, AUD/NZD – TALKING POINTS

• NZD/CHF outlook bearish as the pair struggles to surmount key resistance range
• NZD/CAD trading at 13-month highs, but are technical cues hinting at a pullback?
• AUD/NZD is again retreating from five-year resistance – how much will it decline?

NZD/CHF Outlook

NZD/CHF is struggling to stay above the upper layer of a narrow but fortified congestive zone between support at 0.6052 and resistance at 0.6165. The pair had previously attempted to break higher in early June but was rejected by resistance at 0.6280 with a myriad of ceilings above it still left to clear.

Failure to break above 0.6165 may only reinforce a bearish outlook considering how many layers of resistance NZD/CHF would have to break through before signaling a meaningful trend change. In the event of an aggressive selloff, it is unclear how many shelves of support could stave off NZD/CHF’s decline.

NZD/CHF – Daily Chart

NZD/CHF chart created using TradingView

NZD/CAD Outlook

NZD/CAD has been climbing along an uptrend formed in mid-May and is now trading at a 13-month high. However, negative RSI divergence is indicating that upside momentum is slowing. While this does not guarantee that a pullback will necessary occur, it does suggest that the pair’s ascent is showing signs of exhaustion. If a pullback ensues, retesting the uptrend will be critical. If NZD/CAD breaks below the slope of appreciation with follow-through, it could catalyze a selloff until it hits familiar support at 0.8668.

NZD/CAD – Daily Chart

NZD/CAD chart created using TradingView

AUD/NZD Outlook

AUD/NZD is in the process of retreating from a five-year descending resistance channel for a fifth consecutive time. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the past four times AUD/NZD has pulled back from the slope of depreciation, the exchange rate weakened approximately six percent. Given the current fragile environment, a decline of that magnitude is not outlandish to suggest as a possibility.

AUD/NZD – Daily Chart

AUD/NZD chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitri Twitter