US Dollar (DXY) Forecast - Picking Up a Bid as Stimulus Deal Hopes Fade

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US Dollar (DXY) Price, News and Analysis:

• US dollar underpinned by risk-averse flows.
• The countdown to the US Election begins.

The US dollar picked up a small risk-averse bid this week, nudging the DXY higher. The USD basket also picked up a small boost from a marginally weaker Euro but was unable to break back above 94.00 so far. The greenback is likely to keep this risk-off bid as the US presidential election looms into view on November 3 with the polls strongly favoring Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden with three weeks to go. President Trump is unlikely to give up without a fight, leaving the dollar vulnerable to pockets of volatility ahead of the vote.

The US economic calendar is fairly uninspiring next week until the flash Markit PMIs are released at the end of the week. For all data releases and market-moving economic events see the DailyFX Economic Calendar. Investors are more likely to look at the ongoing US stimulus bill negotiations which seem gridlocked ahead of the election. A series of smaller, targeted, stimulus packages have been mooted in the meantime in an effort to help boost areas of the economy roiled by the pandemic.

The US earnings calendar is busy next week with market heavyweights Procter & Gamble (Oct 19), Netflix (Oct 20), Tesla (Oct 21), and Intel Corp (Oct 22) all worth keeping an eye on amongst a slew of other companies reporting.

The daily US dollar basket chart shows DXY bottoming out around 93.00 at the end of last and the beginning of this week and this support should hold in the short-term. The DXY also broke above the 50-day simple moving average but is having difficulty breaking the shorter-dated 20-sma. Above a cluster of recent highs that go all the way back to the multi-month high of 94.79 made on September 25. Volatility remains low in the US dollar basket, using the 14-day ATR, but this is likely to change as the election nears.

US Dollar Basket (DXY) Daily Price Chart (April – October 16, 2020)

What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.